***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.02.2015.-22.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 3.8 8.5 8.8 93.0 59.6 47.0 3.7 6.5 10.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 2.2 5.5 7.5 84.7 56.9 44.8 2.1 4.3 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 3.3 8.7 9.2 94.0 59.9 46.5 3.2 6.2 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 9.4 9.7 10.5 89.4 59.6 47.7 4.8 7.7 11.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 10.2 10.6 10.6 92.1 60.1 47.2 4.5 8.0 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 3.8 8.3 12.1 99.5 62.7 52.1 3.6 6.0 9.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 2.0 5.0 7.2 83.2 56.4 44.8 1.8 3.9 7.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 17.4 18.4 11.9 95.4 61.3 49.8 10.0 14.7 20.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 8.2 8.3 10.7 92.3 59.9 46.5 3.0 6.0 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 4.3 10.4 11.9 94.8 60.8 47.8 3.9 7.3 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 3.8 9.2 10.6 96.3 61.9 48.7 3.5 6.4 10.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 4.6 10.9 10.7 99.6 63.1 51.3 4.3 7.5 11.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 10.2 11.6 11.4 102.2 64.0 53.0 4.8 8.0 12.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 4.6 11.3 12.3 97.4 61.9 47.3 4.7 8.1 12.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 7.1 7.1 10.3 87.4 60.0 47.8 2.3 4.8 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 4.2 9.2 10.8 99.1 62.8 50.5 4.0 6.7 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 2.5 6.4 7.0 82.5 57.3 44.8 2.3 4.8 8.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 10.8 11.3 13.5 94.6 60.6 47.5 4.0 8.0 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 2.5 6.2 8.2 88.9 58.1 45.2 2.3 4.7 8.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 13.6 13.6 15.0 88.3 58.2 48.5 6.0 10.7 16.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 3.3 8.7 9.7 93.1 60.0 46.6 2.9 6.0 10.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 2.8 7.1 7.9 87.6 58.8 45.6 2.5 5.1 9.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 2.8 6.7 9.4 94.6 60.0 45.7 2.7 4.9 8.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 4.9 11.6 12.0 96.8 61.3 46.7 4.8 8.4 13.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 8.2 8.0 10.0 88.6 58.6 47.5 2.9 5.8 10.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 8.4 9.3 11.7 99.7 63.1 53.3 4.0 6.6 10.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 3.4 7.7 9.3 89.5 58.4 47.2 3.2 5.9 9.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 8.1 8.5 10.5 91.0 60.7 48.4 2.6 5.7 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 18.6 19.3 14.4 92.5 59.9 47.8 8.3 14.5 22.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 2.5 6.3 7.9 87.2 57.7 45.7 2.3 4.7 8.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------