***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.02.2015.-01.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 3.0 5.8 8.4 76.6 53.2 44.3 2.8 5.2 8.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 2.8 6.6 8.8 88.5 59.1 47.0 2.7 5.0 8.1 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 3.2 6.6 8.4 76.2 52.1 43.8 2.9 6.1 10.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 9.7 9.5 10.5 88.2 58.5 47.5 4.0 7.4 11.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 7.6 6.6 9.9 82.7 54.7 45.7 3.1 5.7 9.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 8.7 9.2 12.7 97.1 61.3 50.8 3.5 6.5 10.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 2.7 6.8 8.8 92.8 60.5 48.4 2.4 4.8 8.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 6.1 12.1 11.0 89.3 57.5 49.2 6.0 10.0 15.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 2.9 5.4 9.4 77.4 51.5 44.1 2.7 5.2 8.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 3.5 7.1 10.6 83.6 54.3 47.0 3.3 6.2 10.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 3.0 6.5 9.9 87.0 57.0 47.3 2.8 5.3 8.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 4.2 10.0 10.1 92.9 59.6 49.5 3.8 7.3 12.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 9.2 9.7 11.4 97.2 61.1 50.9 3.9 7.0 11.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 9.8 7.7 10.6 77.2 52.2 44.8 3.6 7.1 12.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 3.5 10.7 10.7 94.6 61.8 47.9 2.8 6.6 12.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 7.8 8.0 10.5 93.5 60.2 49.3 3.0 5.8 9.7 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 2.7 7.4 8.7 94.1 61.4 48.1 2.5 5.0 8.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 7.2 6.0 11.5 83.8 54.1 47.7 2.7 5.3 8.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 2.9 6.7 8.8 83.8 57.0 45.8 2.8 5.4 8.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 3.7 8.3 13.9 91.3 57.8 51.2 3.3 6.4 10.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 3.3 6.2 8.5 74.1 50.8 43.0 3.3 6.0 9.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 2.9 6.8 9.0 88.0 59.3 46.8 2.8 5.1 8.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 2.5 5.2 8.9 78.1 53.7 44.5 2.4 4.6 7.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 3.1 5.9 10.1 78.0 51.9 45.0 2.8 5.5 9.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 3.3 7.2 9.8 81.8 55.0 46.0 3.0 6.0 10.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 8.4 9.3 11.3 96.3 61.9 51.7 3.2 6.3 10.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 3.1 6.2 9.3 81.0 54.5 45.6 2.8 5.4 8.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 7.6 7.9 10.6 91.9 60.6 48.0 2.6 5.4 9.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 12.1 10.8 12.3 85.3 55.0 48.8 5.1 9.3 14.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 2.8 6.6 8.7 84.6 57.1 46.1 2.4 5.0 9.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------