***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.02.2015.-01.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 30.0 28.1 40.9 96.2 53.8 51.4 17.5 25.9 35.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 28.4 26.6 37.2 95.9 53.6 51.0 17.4 24.8 33.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 39.4 37.5 42.8 98.4 55.3 52.3 23.6 33.8 45.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 44.5 47.0 50.3 104.7 60.3 56.0 28.9 39.6 51.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 42.6 47.2 51.7 108.5 63.0 58.1 28.1 38.2 49.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 36.4 43.9 59.0 117.8 69.6 62.9 25.8 33.4 41.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 27.1 25.2 36.2 95.6 53.2 50.3 16.7 23.7 31.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 63.7 70.1 58.3 111.2 65.1 59.8 46.9 58.6 70.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 36.1 37.8 51.4 105.2 60.4 55.8 23.1 31.7 41.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 45.1 48.9 57.2 108.7 63.2 57.9 31.1 40.4 50.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 37.5 43.0 51.0 111.4 65.2 59.8 24.9 33.7 43.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 42.4 49.6 52.6 115.1 67.8 62.0 29.6 38.7 48.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 43 57 100 50.6 52.7 56.7 118.9 70.5 64.9 29.6 38.8 49.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 47.6 49.2 56.0 104.0 59.4 55.3 33.8 43.5 53.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 36.9 43.0 50.0 106.5 62.2 57.7 19.1 31.2 47.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 35.2 42.0 52.4 114.8 67.5 62.1 23.3 31.6 41.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 30.8 27.7 34.6 93.4 51.7 48.9 19.2 26.9 35.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 41.1 44.3 62.6 107.2 62.0 56.7 27.3 36.6 47.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 32.4 30.9 39.4 97.0 54.4 51.8 20.7 28.5 37.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 45.6 47.7 71.8 104.1 59.6 55.9 31.2 41.3 52.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 38.2 37.6 46.0 100.8 57.0 53.6 23.0 32.8 44.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 30.5 28.2 37.7 95.2 53.2 50.5 19.1 26.6 35.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 30.1 29.3 43.9 99.2 55.9 53.0 19.6 26.5 34.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 44.3 45.8 55.2 104.9 60.1 55.2 30.8 39.9 49.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 39.5 39.3 49.3 101.3 57.3 54.3 22.6 33.7 47.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 35.5 43.9 58.0 119.8 70.8 65.0 25.2 32.8 40.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 34.2 32.6 44.9 97.5 54.3 51.9 20.4 29.8 40.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 36.3 41.5 50.5 108.0 62.8 57.8 21.0 31.5 44.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 67.2 70.1 66.2 104.9 60.1 55.6 50.0 62.0 75.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 29.4 27.6 38.3 96.2 53.8 51.1 17.1 25.5 35.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------