***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.02.2014.-09.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 9999.0 3.9 3.3 -1.5 38.3 39.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 6.9 4.7 3.6 -1.2 40.6 41.5 3.6 6.0 8.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 8.1 5.5 3.7 -1.6 38.1 39.1 4.7 7.1 9.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 82 18 0 100 -3.1 -3.8 -2.2 -4.7 16.9 19.5 -1.3 0.8 2.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 3.6 4.2 1.2 -2.5 31.2 32.8 4.4 6.7 8.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 6.4 4.8 1.4 -1.1 41.1 42.1 3.8 5.8 7.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 6.2 4.7 3.8 -0.7 44.1 44.6 3.1 5.4 7.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 88 12 100 -0.5 -0.7 3.1 0.2 51.4 51.3 -2.5 -0.9 0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 8.4 5.5 2.8 -2.0 35.4 36.6 5.2 7.4 9.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 7.7 6.6 3.4 -0.4 46.7 47.0 4.8 7.0 9.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 7.9 5.1 1.9 -1.9 35.7 36.9 4.7 7.0 9.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 86 14 100 7.4 6.5 2.9 -0.5 46.1 46.4 4.9 6.9 8.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 90 10 100 7.1 7.1 3.7 0.3 52.4 52.3 4.6 6.8 8.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 85 15 100 8.5 9.2 6.7 1.4 59.8 59.0 5.4 7.8 10.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 96 4 0 100 1.3 -0.2 -2.4 -6.1 10.6 12.6 3.9 6.1 8.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 7.9 5.6 1.8 -1.6 37.7 39.0 5.0 7.1 9.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 6.5 4.1 2.9 -1.6 37.2 38.2 3.5 5.6 7.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 86 14 100 6.7 7.5 5.0 1.5 61.2 60.5 4.3 6.3 8.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 7.0 5.1 4.1 -0.9 43.0 43.7 3.6 6.1 8.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 5.3 5.3 4.2 2.6 70.4 69.5 1.2 3.1 4.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 4.0 4.7 2.7 -2.4 32.4 33.8 4.8 7.1 9.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 7.2 4.9 3.4 -1.4 39.0 40.0 4.0 6.4 8.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 87 13 100 7.1 6.5 5.1 -0.1 49.0 49.1 4.3 6.6 8.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 87 13 100 8.2 8.2 5.5 0.5 54.0 53.7 5.3 7.7 9.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 3.1 3.6 1.3 -2.3 32.1 33.5 3.7 5.7 7.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 93 7 100 6.5 7.1 3.4 0.8 57.1 56.7 4.4 6.3 8.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 6.9 5.3 3.4 -0.8 43.2 43.7 3.9 6.2 8.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 85 15 0 100 2.7 1.7 -2.1 -5.3 15.2 17.7 4.8 7.2 9.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 5.8 5.9 5.5 2.7 70.8 69.7 1.6 3.5 5.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 6.7 4.5 3.7 -1.2 40.9 41.7 3.4 5.8 8.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------