***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.02.2014.-16.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 9999.0 10.0 7.9 2.9 77.0 72.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 22 78 100 8.3 9.6 8.2 3.4 80.2 76.0 3.0 5.3 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 24 76 100 9.0 10.2 8.5 3.3 79.2 74.6 3.6 5.9 8.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 0.3 0.4 3.7 0.7 56.7 56.6 -2.7 -0.4 1.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 8.6 8.7 5.8 2.2 70.0 67.0 3.9 6.1 8.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 23 77 100 8.3 8.8 5.5 2.8 75.9 71.6 3.6 5.6 7.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 22 78 100 7.9 9.2 8.1 3.4 80.4 76.3 2.6 4.8 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 15 85 100 0.6 1.7 6.7 3.6 83.2 78.5 -3.7 -2.0 -0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 26 74 100 9.3 10.2 7.4 3.1 77.2 72.7 4.0 6.3 8.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 20 80 100 9.2 10.7 7.3 3.7 82.1 77.3 4.0 6.2 8.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 25 75 100 9.3 9.9 6.4 2.8 75.9 71.9 4.1 6.3 8.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 17 83 100 9.0 10.0 6.7 3.2 80.3 76.0 3.9 5.9 7.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 19 81 100 9.4 10.4 6.3 3.1 80.0 75.6 4.3 6.4 8.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 14 86 100 9.7 11.9 9.0 4.4 85.9 81.0 3.9 6.2 8.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 6.1 4.7 2.6 -0.6 44.4 46.8 3.1 5.4 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 27 73 100 9.6 10.0 5.9 2.5 74.2 70.4 4.7 6.8 8.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 20 80 100 7.8 8.8 7.9 3.3 79.5 75.2 2.8 4.9 6.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 14 86 100 8.7 10.9 7.9 4.4 87.1 82.1 3.6 5.7 7.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 22 78 100 8.4 9.8 8.5 3.6 80.8 76.4 2.9 5.2 7.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 9 91 100 5.2 7.2 6.1 4.3 88.4 83.7 0.7 2.4 4.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 27 73 100 9.1 9.8 7.6 2.9 75.5 71.2 3.9 6.2 8.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 21 79 100 8.5 9.7 8.2 3.4 79.8 75.3 3.1 5.4 7.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 20 80 100 8.6 10.3 9.0 3.9 82.4 77.7 3.1 5.4 7.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 17 83 100 9.7 11.9 8.7 4.2 85.0 79.9 3.9 6.3 8.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 7.9 8.1 5.7 2.2 71.0 67.7 3.2 5.4 7.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 19 81 100 9.0 10.2 6.2 3.1 81.6 77.5 4.4 6.3 8.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 26 74 100 8.8 9.7 7.2 2.9 77.1 72.8 3.7 5.9 8.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 6.8 6.4 3.5 0.3 52.6 53.3 3.6 6.0 8.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 11 89 100 5.3 7.9 7.4 4.6 89.1 84.3 0.0 2.1 4.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 23 77 100 8.2 9.4 8.3 3.4 80.0 75.7 2.9 5.2 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------