***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.02.2014.-23.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 24 76 100 9999.0 10.2 9.5 3.1 78.1 73.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 24 76 100 9.1 10.3 9.6 3.4 79.3 74.6 4.1 6.3 8.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 22 78 100 10.1 11.1 9.9 3.3 78.9 73.6 4.8 7.1 9.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 2.9 2.5 6.1 1.9 67.3 63.9 -1.9 0.3 2.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 26 74 100 10.0 10.4 7.6 2.7 74.1 69.3 4.8 7.1 9.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 26 74 100 8.9 9.7 6.6 2.9 76.6 71.1 4.0 6.1 8.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 26 74 100 8.7 9.9 9.5 3.3 79.1 74.5 3.7 5.9 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 21 79 100 0.8 1.7 7.3 3.2 79.6 73.3 -3.9 -1.9 -0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 24 76 100 10.3 11.2 8.7 3.2 77.5 72.0 5.2 7.4 9.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 22 78 100 10.3 11.3 8.1 3.3 79.2 73.1 5.1 7.3 9.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 24 76 100 10.5 11.2 7.7 2.9 76.4 71.2 5.2 7.4 9.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 25 75 100 9.9 10.9 7.7 3.0 78.0 72.4 4.7 6.9 9.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 26 74 100 10.2 11.3 7.3 3.0 77.9 72.5 5.0 7.3 9.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 22 78 100 10.7 12.0 9.5 3.6 80.3 74.5 5.3 7.6 9.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 7.1 7.4 5.3 0.9 59.0 57.9 4.3 6.3 8.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 10.7 11.3 7.3 2.8 75.5 70.5 5.3 7.7 9.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 27 73 100 8.4 9.4 9.4 3.4 78.7 74.3 3.8 5.8 7.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 18 82 100 9.9 11.1 8.0 3.5 81.1 74.4 4.6 6.7 8.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 25 75 100 9.3 10.6 9.9 3.5 79.5 74.7 4.0 6.3 8.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 17 83 100 6.1 7.5 5.9 3.3 82.3 74.9 0.9 3.0 5.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 24 76 100 10.1 11.0 9.2 3.1 77.3 71.9 5.0 7.2 9.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 9.1 10.3 9.6 3.5 78.9 74.5 4.0 6.2 8.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 23 77 100 9.7 11.0 10.1 3.5 79.9 74.7 4.3 6.6 8.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 21 79 100 10.5 11.7 9.3 3.5 80.3 74.2 5.1 7.4 9.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 26 74 100 9.0 9.5 7.5 2.7 74.9 70.1 4.1 6.2 8.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 24 76 100 9.9 11.0 7.1 2.9 78.8 73.3 4.8 7.0 9.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 25 75 100 9.4 10.3 8.7 3.1 77.7 72.6 4.3 6.5 8.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 9.5 8.8 6.0 1.6 64.5 61.8 4.7 6.9 9.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 20 80 100 6.3 7.8 7.2 3.5 81.9 74.8 0.8 3.1 5.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 23 77 100 9.0 10.1 9.7 3.4 79.3 74.5 4.0 6.1 8.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------