***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.02.2014.-02.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 9999.0 8.8 7.8 2.0 73.3 70.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 8.6 9.1 8.0 2.3 75.1 72.5 4.6 6.4 8.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 9.4 9.9 8.3 2.2 74.0 71.2 5.6 7.3 9.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 1.4 1.1 4.0 0.2 52.8 52.9 -0.7 0.8 2.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 9.1 9.0 5.9 1.5 66.8 64.6 5.7 7.3 8.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 23 77 100 8.5 8.7 5.3 2.0 74.5 70.7 5.1 6.5 7.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 26 74 100 8.3 8.9 8.0 2.3 76.3 73.6 4.2 6.0 7.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 20 80 100 0.4 1.0 6.4 2.6 80.5 76.4 -2.3 -1.2 -0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 9.8 10.0 7.2 2.0 72.3 69.3 6.1 7.7 9.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 22 78 100 9.7 10.4 7.0 2.5 78.3 74.5 6.0 7.6 9.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 9.6 9.7 6.3 1.8 71.4 68.5 6.0 7.6 9.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 22 78 100 9.2 9.7 6.6 2.3 77.3 73.6 5.8 7.2 8.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 19 81 100 9.7 10.3 6.4 2.4 79.4 75.3 6.1 7.5 9.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 21 79 100 10.4 11.8 8.9 3.2 83.1 79.2 6.0 7.9 9.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 7.2 5.6 3.4 -0.8 41.1 43.5 4.8 6.5 8.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 9.9 10.0 5.9 1.8 71.4 68.4 6.4 8.0 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 8.0 8.3 7.6 2.1 73.3 71.0 4.2 5.9 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 17 83 100 9.3 10.7 7.4 3.2 85.1 80.6 5.5 7.1 8.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 8.9 9.5 8.4 2.4 76.1 73.3 4.6 6.5 8.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 12 88 100 5.4 7.0 5.7 3.4 88.6 84.0 2.1 3.4 4.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 9.4 9.5 7.5 1.8 70.2 67.6 5.8 7.5 9.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 8.7 9.2 8.0 2.2 74.1 71.5 4.7 6.6 8.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 23 77 100 9.4 10.2 8.8 2.7 78.7 75.5 5.0 6.9 8.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 20 80 100 10.1 11.2 8.4 2.9 81.5 77.6 6.1 7.8 9.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 8.2 8.1 5.9 1.5 67.5 65.4 4.8 6.5 8.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 13 87 100 9.2 9.9 6.2 2.5 81.7 77.7 5.9 7.2 8.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 9.0 9.4 7.3 2.1 74.8 71.8 5.2 6.9 8.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 8.0 7.2 4.0 -0.1 48.8 49.7 5.4 7.3 9.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 12 88 100 5.8 7.6 7.0 3.6 88.6 84.1 2.1 3.6 5.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 8.5 9.0 8.1 2.3 75.2 72.5 4.5 6.3 7.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------