***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.02.2014.-09.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 88 12 0 100 9999.0 0.0 1.8 16.1 11.4 10.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 87 13 0 100 1.4 0.9 2.1 23.7 16.2 14.8 2.3 4.3 7.0 30 Becej 27400G00 88 12 0 100 1.3 0.6 1.9 18.0 13.4 12.3 2.3 4.6 7.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 72 28 0 100 3.1 3.1 4.7 39.6 27.8 26.5 3.9 7.0 11.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 79 21 0 100 2.9 2.7 4.3 34.7 24.1 22.9 4.1 7.3 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 85 15 0 100 2.1 1.7 2.7 26.0 18.3 16.9 3.4 5.8 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 87 13 0 100 1.2 0.7 2.0 22.9 14.5 13.8 2.1 4.0 6.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 88 12 0 100 3.0 1.7 2.9 23.1 13.6 13.5 5.1 9.1 14.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 88 12 0 100 1.3 0.6 2.5 19.8 11.9 12.0 2.4 4.7 7.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 90 10 0 100 1.9 0.9 2.6 19.9 10.8 11.5 3.5 6.5 10.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 88 12 0 100 1.6 1.0 2.7 23.0 15.4 14.6 3.1 6.1 10.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 86 14 0 100 1.7 1.0 2.7 23.3 14.3 14.0 2.8 5.0 8.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 89 11 0 100 1.8 1.0 2.8 23.9 13.0 13.2 3.3 6.0 9.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 84 16 0 100 1.6 0.7 2.8 22.0 14.4 13.8 2.6 5.4 9.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 2.7 3.6 5.5 50.9 40.9 37.0 2.4 5.3 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 87 13 0 100 1.8 1.4 3.1 27.7 18.0 17.0 3.0 5.4 8.7 30 Nis 06700G01 84 16 0 100 1.6 1.3 2.4 28.9 20.0 17.5 2.6 4.9 8.2 30 Palic 37000G16 84 16 0 100 1.8 0.8 3.1 22.1 12.0 12.6 2.9 5.4 8.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 87 13 0 100 1.4 0.9 2.1 22.4 15.9 14.4 2.4 4.7 7.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 83 17 0 100 1.8 1.1 4.6 28.2 16.9 16.1 2.8 5.3 8.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 87 13 0 100 1.7 0.8 2.1 17.5 12.1 11.4 2.9 5.1 8.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 82 18 0 100 1.8 1.6 2.7 30.1 21.6 18.4 2.7 4.8 7.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 85 15 0 100 1.2 0.5 2.1 20.6 14.5 13.4 2.1 4.3 7.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 85 15 0 100 2.2 1.2 2.7 20.8 13.4 13.0 3.6 6.5 10.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 88 12 0 100 1.8 1.4 3.2 25.4 17.9 16.9 3.1 5.5 8.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 78 22 0 100 1.6 1.0 3.2 27.1 18.0 16.8 2.3 4.4 7.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 90 10 0 100 1.6 0.9 2.2 18.3 12.1 11.8 3.1 5.7 9.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 2.2 2.6 5.2 48.9 36.0 33.4 2.3 4.5 7.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 86 14 0 100 2.6 1.4 3.5 23.5 13.2 13.5 4.2 7.7 12.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 87 13 0 100 1.3 0.7 1.9 20.3 14.1 13.1 2.3 4.0 6.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------