***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.02.2014.-16.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 9999.0 3.4 6.0 59.2 46.5 35.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 2.6 5.8 6.9 71.9 53.0 39.2 2.4 5.2 9.3 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 2.7 5.4 6.6 61.3 46.2 35.4 2.7 6.4 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 81 19 0 100 3.1 4.0 3.8 34.0 29.5 20.2 4.6 8.7 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 71 29 0 100 3.2 5.5 6.2 55.4 41.2 32.4 4.0 7.7 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 67 33 0 100 3.0 4.1 6.2 51.5 38.0 31.1 3.4 6.4 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 2.1 4.6 6.5 70.6 52.3 39.0 2.0 4.2 7.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 70 30 0 100 8.3 11.6 6.4 53.8 39.1 31.8 9.9 14.9 21.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 71 29 0 100 2.9 5.3 6.7 57.2 42.8 33.8 3.5 6.9 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 71 29 0 100 4.3 7.1 6.9 56.4 41.0 33.1 5.3 9.4 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 71 29 0 100 2.6 4.2 5.6 53.4 39.9 31.9 3.1 6.3 11.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 72 28 0 100 2.9 4.3 5.3 50.6 37.3 30.3 3.5 7.4 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 71 29 0 100 3.1 4.9 5.8 52.1 38.5 31.2 3.8 7.6 13.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 5.5 9.4 8.8 66.7 47.9 37.2 5.5 10.0 16.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 3.5 5.0 5.2 46.0 40.4 32.0 3.6 7.0 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 73 27 0 100 2.1 3.7 5.5 53.0 39.6 31.7 2.6 5.6 10.1 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 2.8 6.1 7.1 77.9 56.1 41.4 2.8 5.1 8.3 30 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 4.2 6.9 8.3 61.6 43.2 35.0 4.8 8.4 13.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 2.8 6.1 7.1 70.6 52.1 38.6 2.6 5.6 10.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 4.2 6.5 9.2 60.9 42.9 34.8 4.3 8.2 13.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 72 28 0 100 2.2 4.8 6.6 59.1 44.1 34.4 2.7 6.3 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 3.8 7.9 7.8 80.5 57.5 42.2 3.8 6.4 9.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 3.2 5.8 7.3 66.4 49.0 36.9 3.1 5.9 9.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 3.4 6.1 7.9 62.6 45.0 35.8 3.5 7.4 13.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 2.9 6.0 6.9 62.1 46.8 36.1 3.0 7.0 13.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 73 27 0 100 2.2 3.0 5.3 47.2 34.6 27.3 2.8 5.7 10.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 2.5 5.2 6.6 62.7 47.6 36.1 2.6 5.8 10.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 70 30 0 100 2.7 3.3 4.5 40.1 34.5 26.1 3.1 6.7 12.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 9.3 13.8 8.9 62.5 43.7 35.6 10.5 16.0 22.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 2.8 5.7 6.5 66.4 50.4 37.4 2.8 5.6 9.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------