***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.02.2014.-02.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 9999.0 6.7 6.4 69.0 51.1 39.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 3.6 7.3 6.7 80.1 56.2 42.2 3.4 6.0 9.6 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 4.5 7.8 6.4 68.5 50.1 39.3 4.2 7.8 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 67 33 0 100 4.0 8.5 7.1 67.1 50.0 36.0 4.6 8.5 13.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 4.1 7.7 7.3 68.7 49.7 38.1 4.4 7.8 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 4.1 7.6 8.9 73.4 50.2 39.6 4.3 7.6 12.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 3.5 7.7 6.9 85.2 57.7 42.2 3.5 6.2 9.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 7.9 12.0 8.1 66.2 48.1 38.2 8.1 12.5 17.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 3.7 6.5 7.4 67.8 49.0 38.7 3.6 6.7 11.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 5.5 8.4 8.2 68.1 48.4 38.6 5.4 8.8 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 3.5 6.3 7.2 68.5 48.9 36.9 3.9 6.5 9.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 4.0 7.4 6.8 64.1 47.0 36.5 4.5 8.2 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 4.4 7.7 7.6 68.1 47.4 37.5 4.8 8.2 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 5.9 11.2 8.6 79.1 54.5 42.7 5.6 9.9 15.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 3.6 9.9 7.5 73.8 55.2 39.5 3.6 8.0 14.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 67 33 0 100 3.4 6.7 7.2 68.3 48.3 36.7 3.8 7.1 11.4 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 4.7 9.5 6.8 88.2 59.4 42.4 4.6 7.6 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 4.7 7.4 9.0 69.5 48.4 39.3 4.7 7.6 11.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 3.8 7.4 6.7 77.1 54.8 42.0 3.6 6.5 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 10.6 7.9 10.3 66.8 48.1 40.0 4.9 8.3 12.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 3.7 7.0 6.6 66.8 49.3 38.5 3.9 7.2 11.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 4.2 8.9 7.0 86.8 58.4 42.7 4.4 7.2 10.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 3.5 6.4 7.1 76.0 53.8 41.8 3.3 5.8 8.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 4.7 8.2 8.0 72.3 50.6 40.0 4.7 8.0 12.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 2.9 6.6 7.8 71.0 51.3 40.0 2.8 6.3 11.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 4.0 7.2 7.7 68.8 48.9 39.1 3.9 7.4 12.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 3.2 6.9 7.6 74.2 53.3 41.1 3.2 6.2 10.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 3.0 7.1 7.2 70.0 51.8 37.1 3.4 6.6 11.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 7.4 11.3 9.6 69.1 48.6 40.0 7.1 11.7 17.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 4.2 8.0 6.6 75.8 54.2 41.4 3.9 7.0 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------