***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.02.2014.-02.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 75 25 0 100 9999.0 15.5 19.8 48.0 16.8 21.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 71 29 0 100 17.5 16.7 21.2 56.9 23.6 26.2 20.5 27.6 35.7 30 Becej 27400G00 73 27 0 100 21.4 16.5 20.6 49.5 16.7 21.1 25.8 36.0 47.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 76 24 0 100 25.3 20.9 21.4 46.7 16.8 20.1 30.8 41.3 53.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 75 25 0 100 26.5 23.8 24.5 53.6 19.7 22.6 31.6 41.4 52.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 81 19 0 100 22.5 20.3 25.9 53.9 17.7 21.7 27.3 34.7 42.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 72 28 0 100 16.5 16.0 21.0 57.9 23.9 26.7 19.5 26.2 33.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 79 21 0 100 42.1 36.1 25.7 51.3 14.8 19.8 49.2 60.6 72.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 81 19 0 100 21.7 18.2 23.5 50.3 15.4 20.0 26.8 35.0 43.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 81 19 0 100 28.9 24.5 25.8 51.5 14.2 19.7 34.8 43.5 52.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 79 21 0 100 21.7 18.3 22.3 50.6 16.6 20.6 26.6 35.4 45.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 78 22 0 100 25.8 21.2 21.8 49.0 14.8 19.3 31.1 39.9 49.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 81 19 0 100 26.2 22.0 23.6 51.0 14.9 19.4 31.8 40.7 50.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 70 30 0 100 32.8 28.7 28.0 55.8 18.5 23.5 36.8 46.3 56.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 17.7 17.0 24.4 54.7 27.7 27.6 20.3 33.1 49.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 80 20 0 100 20.6 17.9 22.4 51.0 17.0 20.6 25.6 33.9 43.2 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 21.0 21.6 22.1 62.9 28.5 30.1 23.5 30.5 38.4 30 Palic 37000G16 78 22 0 100 25.0 19.9 29.3 53.3 14.1 20.2 30.1 39.1 49.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 70 30 0 100 20.1 18.3 21.3 55.1 22.1 25.1 23.2 30.9 39.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 78 22 0 100 27.8 23.4 34.8 53.6 15.9 20.7 33.6 43.5 54.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 77 23 0 100 20.7 16.5 21.4 48.5 16.3 20.4 25.8 35.5 46.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 21.0 21.8 23.7 63.5 28.9 30.5 23.4 30.3 37.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 68 32 0 100 18.8 15.9 22.2 53.2 19.7 23.6 21.2 28.1 35.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 76 24 0 100 28.8 24.3 26.1 53.0 15.5 21.2 33.7 42.7 52.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 75 25 0 100 20.2 16.9 24.6 52.4 19.3 22.7 25.1 36.6 49.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 82 18 0 100 24.3 21.6 23.3 49.8 15.5 19.5 28.8 35.2 42.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 77 23 0 100 17.6 14.3 22.8 51.5 17.8 22.1 22.2 31.8 43.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 74 26 0 100 18.0 16.3 22.9 51.6 22.4 23.9 22.2 33.1 46.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 77 23 0 100 46.0 39.3 31.6 53.6 14.7 20.2 52.9 64.4 76.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 71 29 0 100 16.6 14.2 20.5 53.5 20.8 24.2 19.8 28.0 37.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------