***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.02.2020.-09.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 87 13 100 6.6 8.0 6.7 1.8 63.0 62.7 3.4 6.0 8.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 90 10 100 6.4 7.5 7.0 1.6 61.6 61.4 3.6 6.0 8.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 91 9 100 7.5 8.4 7.0 1.4 59.8 59.5 4.7 7.1 9.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 88 12 100 1.3 2.3 3.8 1.7 62.2 61.8 -1.3 0.8 2.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 93 7 100 6.9 7.4 4.9 0.8 55.6 55.5 4.4 6.7 8.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 88 12 100 6.2 5.8 3.2 0.1 50.7 50.5 3.8 5.8 7.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 90 10 100 5.9 7.0 6.7 1.6 61.1 60.9 3.1 5.4 7.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 94 6 100 -0.7 -1.0 3.1 -0.3 48.2 48.3 -2.5 -0.9 0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 93 7 100 7.7 8.2 6.0 0.8 55.7 55.6 5.2 7.4 9.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 94 6 100 7.3 6.9 4.0 -0.2 49.0 49.1 4.8 7.0 9.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 94 6 100 7.2 7.5 5.3 0.6 54.5 54.4 4.7 7.0 9.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 93 7 100 7.2 7.2 4.2 0.3 51.9 51.8 4.9 6.9 8.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 92 8 100 7.1 6.9 4.7 0.1 50.8 50.7 4.6 6.8 8.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 95 5 100 8.1 8.4 6.3 0.6 53.9 53.9 5.4 7.8 10.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 8.9 8.7 6.7 2.7 69.6 68.8 3.9 6.1 8.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 93 7 100 7.4 7.7 4.6 0.6 54.8 54.6 5.0 7.1 9.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 90 10 100 6.0 7.1 6.7 1.7 62.1 61.9 3.5 5.6 7.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 95 5 100 6.4 6.1 3.4 -0.2 48.4 48.5 4.3 6.3 8.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 90 10 100 6.6 7.8 7.0 1.6 61.3 61.0 3.6 6.1 8.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 91 9 100 3.4 2.7 1.5 -0.5 46.3 46.4 1.2 3.1 4.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 93 7 100 7.3 7.9 6.7 1.0 56.9 56.8 4.8 7.1 9.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 90 10 100 6.8 8.0 7.0 1.6 61.9 61.6 4.0 6.4 8.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 90 10 100 7.0 8.0 7.1 1.5 60.3 60.1 4.3 6.6 8.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 96 4 100 7.9 8.0 5.8 0.4 52.5 52.5 5.3 7.7 9.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 90 10 100 6.1 6.9 5.6 1.3 60.1 59.8 3.7 5.7 7.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 87 13 100 6.7 5.9 3.1 -0.4 46.5 46.7 4.4 6.3 8.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 90 10 100 6.6 7.5 6.1 1.3 60.0 59.8 3.9 6.2 8.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 87 13 100 7.7 9.0 5.0 1.9 63.3 62.8 4.8 7.2 9.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 95 5 100 3.7 3.3 2.7 -0.3 47.9 48.0 1.6 3.5 5.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 89 11 100 6.2 7.4 6.9 1.7 61.8 61.5 3.4 5.8 8.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------