***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.02.2020.-16.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 11 89 100 9.3 11.0 10.7 4.7 84.8 81.4 3.8 6.0 8.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 6 94 100 8.9 10.6 11.0 5.0 85.2 82.3 3.0 5.3 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 11 89 100 9.5 11.1 11.3 4.8 84.0 80.5 3.6 5.9 8.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 18 82 100 2.8 5.0 7.9 5.0 85.5 81.0 -2.7 -0.4 1.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 23 77 100 9.1 10.7 9.0 4.3 82.1 78.2 3.9 6.1 8.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 25 75 100 8.2 9.4 7.3 3.6 79.7 75.0 3.6 5.6 7.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 5 95 100 8.6 10.1 10.8 4.9 85.1 82.3 2.6 4.8 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 27 73 100 0.2 1.1 7.6 3.5 78.9 74.8 -3.7 -2.0 -0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 23 77 100 9.4 11.2 10.1 4.4 82.5 78.5 4.0 6.3 8.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 24 76 100 9.1 10.1 8.6 3.8 79.0 75.0 4.0 6.2 8.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 25 75 100 9.3 10.7 9.2 4.0 80.3 76.4 4.1 6.3 8.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 8.6 9.9 8.3 3.6 79.8 75.6 3.9 5.9 7.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 26 74 100 9.1 9.8 8.0 3.1 76.4 72.6 4.3 6.4 8.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 15 85 100 9.7 11.3 10.7 4.7 83.2 79.4 3.9 6.2 8.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 13 87 100 8.9 11.2 9.7 5.4 87.0 82.2 3.1 5.4 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 25 75 100 9.7 10.8 8.3 3.7 79.3 75.4 4.7 6.8 8.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 6 94 100 8.3 10.1 10.8 5.0 86.3 83.4 2.8 4.9 6.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 24 76 100 8.4 9.5 8.4 3.8 80.0 75.8 3.6 5.7 7.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 8 92 100 9.0 10.6 11.2 5.0 84.8 81.7 2.9 5.2 7.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 24 76 100 4.8 5.7 6.1 3.4 79.7 75.5 0.7 2.4 4.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 18 82 100 9.5 11.3 10.8 4.5 83.4 79.5 3.9 6.2 8.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 6 94 100 9.1 10.9 11.0 5.0 86.0 82.9 3.1 5.4 7.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 13 87 100 8.9 10.6 11.3 4.9 84.1 80.8 3.1 5.4 7.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 17 83 100 9.7 11.3 10.4 4.4 82.3 78.3 3.9 6.3 8.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 17 83 100 8.5 10.3 9.4 4.6 84.6 80.6 3.2 5.4 7.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 8.6 9.7 7.1 3.1 78.7 74.3 4.4 6.3 8.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 12 88 100 9.3 11.1 10.1 4.5 84.5 81.0 3.7 5.9 8.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 19 81 100 9.5 11.7 8.7 5.0 84.9 80.2 3.6 6.0 8.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 22 78 100 4.9 6.0 7.6 3.6 79.7 75.5 0.0 2.1 4.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 7 93 100 8.8 10.4 10.9 4.9 84.8 81.8 2.9 5.2 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------