***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.02.2020.-23.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 16 84 100 10.2 11.9 10.9 4.4 84.7 80.7 5.2 7.2 9.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 16 84 100 9.4 11.2 10.9 4.4 84.5 80.8 4.1 6.3 8.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 20 80 100 10.2 12.1 11.3 4.4 83.9 79.7 4.8 7.1 9.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 15 85 100 3.6 5.9 8.9 5.0 87.0 82.1 -1.9 0.3 2.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 22 78 100 10.2 12.4 9.6 4.5 84.7 79.5 4.8 7.1 9.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 24 76 100 9.0 10.8 7.9 4.0 82.7 77.1 4.0 6.1 8.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 14 86 100 9.1 10.9 10.8 4.4 84.8 81.1 3.7 5.9 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 24 76 100 0.7 2.3 8.4 4.0 83.1 76.9 -3.9 -1.9 -0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 21 79 100 10.5 12.3 10.1 4.4 83.7 78.4 5.2 7.4 9.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 23 77 100 10.3 11.9 9.1 4.1 82.5 76.7 5.1 7.3 9.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 22 78 100 10.6 12.6 9.4 4.2 83.8 78.3 5.2 7.4 9.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 20 80 100 10.1 11.9 9.1 4.0 83.4 77.7 4.7 6.9 9.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 22 78 100 10.4 12.0 8.1 3.8 82.1 76.7 5.0 7.3 9.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 10.5 12.4 10.3 4.3 82.6 77.1 5.3 7.6 9.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 13 87 100 9.4 11.8 9.8 5.4 88.3 83.9 4.3 6.3 8.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 20 80 100 10.9 12.9 8.8 4.1 83.6 78.2 5.3 7.7 9.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 16 84 100 8.8 10.5 10.8 4.3 84.7 80.9 3.8 5.8 7.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 26 74 100 9.6 11.3 9.0 4.1 82.3 76.2 4.6 6.7 8.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 18 82 100 9.6 11.5 11.1 4.4 84.0 80.1 4.0 6.3 8.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 5.6 7.6 6.6 3.8 83.1 76.3 0.9 3.0 5.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 20 80 100 10.3 12.2 10.7 4.4 83.8 79.1 5.0 7.2 9.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 17 83 100 9.4 11.2 10.9 4.3 84.1 80.0 4.0 6.2 8.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 22 78 100 9.8 11.6 11.3 4.3 83.0 78.8 4.3 6.6 8.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 26 74 100 10.3 12.2 10.2 4.3 82.9 77.4 5.1 7.4 9.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 16 84 100 9.3 11.3 9.5 4.5 85.4 81.0 4.1 6.2 8.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 14 86 100 10.3 12.0 8.1 3.9 84.3 79.0 4.8 7.0 9.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 16 84 100 9.7 11.6 10.3 4.3 84.9 80.8 4.3 6.5 8.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 16 84 100 10.2 12.6 9.2 5.1 86.8 81.9 4.7 6.9 9.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 27 73 100 6.0 7.9 8.1 4.0 82.4 75.9 0.8 3.1 5.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 15 85 100 9.3 11.1 10.9 4.5 84.6 80.8 4.0 6.1 8.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------