***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.02.2020.-01.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 9.8 12.2 10.0 2.3 70.9 66.0 6.7 9.1 11.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 43 57 100 10.4 10.9 9.9 2.2 70.1 65.9 5.6 8.0 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 9.9 12.0 10.4 2.2 69.3 64.8 6.7 9.2 11.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 45 55 100 5.0 6.0 7.7 2.7 72.8 67.6 0.3 2.7 4.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 10.1 12.2 8.5 2.2 69.2 64.0 7.0 9.4 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 9.4 10.5 6.5 1.7 64.8 59.6 6.4 8.6 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 8.4 10.5 9.9 2.2 70.2 65.8 5.4 7.7 9.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 0.7 1.6 7.2 1.7 65.6 60.1 -1.3 0.2 1.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 10.5 12.3 9.0 2.1 67.7 62.6 7.4 9.8 12.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 10.5 11.8 7.9 1.8 65.7 60.4 7.3 9.7 11.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 10.5 12.2 8.3 2.0 67.2 62.1 7.4 9.8 12.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 9.8 11.1 8.0 1.8 66.0 61.0 7.0 9.1 11.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 10.5 11.6 7.1 1.6 64.7 59.6 7.6 9.7 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 10.6 12.3 9.2 1.9 65.8 61.1 7.2 9.8 12.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 11.2 12.1 8.5 3.0 74.2 69.8 5.8 8.3 10.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 10.9 12.5 7.7 1.9 67.1 61.8 8.0 10.2 12.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 8.1 10.1 9.8 2.1 70.0 65.8 5.2 7.4 9.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 10.3 11.5 7.7 1.7 64.7 59.2 7.3 9.6 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 45 55 100 10.6 11.1 10.2 2.2 69.5 65.3 5.7 8.2 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 5.8 6.7 5.3 1.6 65.0 58.6 3.3 5.1 6.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 10.3 12.3 9.7 2.2 68.8 63.8 7.2 9.6 11.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 9.0 11.1 9.9 2.1 69.4 65.3 5.8 8.3 10.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 9.6 11.5 10.3 2.1 68.0 63.8 6.4 8.9 11.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 10.5 12.0 9.1 1.9 66.1 61.0 7.4 9.8 12.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 9.2 11.6 8.5 2.4 71.5 66.2 6.1 8.5 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 9.8 11.1 7.0 1.7 66.4 61.2 7.3 9.2 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 9.5 11.7 9.4 2.3 71.0 65.8 6.5 8.8 11.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 42 58 100 12.0 13.0 8.0 2.7 72.4 67.4 6.3 9.1 11.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 6.4 7.3 6.9 1.6 63.9 58.3 3.6 5.6 7.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 43 57 100 10.5 10.9 10.0 2.3 70.3 65.9 5.7 8.1 10.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------