***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.02.2020.-01.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 12 88 100 9.7 10.8 9.6 3.3 83.0 80.8 5.4 7.1 8.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 14 86 100 9.1 10.1 9.7 3.3 82.2 80.2 4.6 6.4 8.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 16 84 100 9.9 10.9 10.0 3.2 81.4 79.2 5.6 7.3 9.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 14 86 100 3.2 4.5 7.1 3.6 84.3 81.6 -0.7 0.8 2.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 17 83 100 9.7 10.5 8.0 2.9 80.3 77.8 5.7 7.3 8.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 20 80 100 8.5 8.9 6.2 2.3 77.0 74.0 5.1 6.5 7.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 14 86 100 8.7 9.7 9.5 3.2 82.0 80.0 4.2 6.0 7.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 22 78 100 0.3 0.6 6.6 2.2 75.7 73.0 -2.3 -1.2 -0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 17 83 100 10.2 10.9 8.8 2.9 80.1 77.5 6.1 7.7 9.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 23 77 100 9.7 10.1 7.4 2.4 75.8 73.3 6.0 7.6 9.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 19 81 100 9.9 10.6 8.1 2.7 78.6 76.1 6.0 7.6 9.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 20 80 100 9.3 9.7 7.4 2.4 77.3 74.6 5.8 7.2 8.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 22 78 100 9.6 9.8 7.0 2.2 74.7 72.2 6.1 7.5 9.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 19 81 100 10.5 11.2 9.1 2.8 78.9 76.3 6.0 7.9 9.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 10 90 100 9.3 11.0 8.7 4.1 86.8 84.2 4.8 6.5 8.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 20 80 100 10.1 10.7 7.4 2.6 78.2 75.5 6.4 8.0 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 14 86 100 8.5 9.6 9.5 3.3 83.0 80.8 4.2 5.9 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 23 77 100 9.1 9.5 7.1 2.4 76.0 73.1 5.5 7.1 8.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 15 85 100 9.3 10.4 9.9 3.3 81.8 79.8 4.6 6.5 8.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 26 74 100 5.1 5.5 4.9 2.1 75.6 72.3 2.1 3.4 4.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 18 82 100 9.9 10.8 9.5 3.0 80.7 78.4 5.8 7.5 9.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 14 86 100 9.3 10.5 9.7 3.2 82.8 80.6 4.7 6.6 8.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 18 82 100 9.5 10.6 10.0 3.2 81.0 78.9 5.0 6.9 8.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 20 80 100 10.1 10.7 8.9 2.7 78.4 75.8 6.1 7.8 9.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 15 85 100 8.9 10.0 8.3 3.2 82.7 80.3 4.8 6.5 8.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 20 80 100 9.1 9.3 6.3 2.1 75.7 73.0 5.9 7.2 8.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 15 85 100 9.3 10.4 9.0 3.1 82.4 80.1 5.2 6.9 8.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 14 86 100 10.2 11.7 7.7 3.7 84.2 81.5 5.4 7.3 9.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 26 74 100 5.5 5.9 6.3 2.2 75.5 72.4 2.1 3.6 5.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 14 86 100 8.9 10.0 9.7 3.3 82.1 80.1 4.5 6.3 7.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------