***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.02.2020.-09.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 7.6 10.1 17.4 163.5 80.3 73.6 2.0 3.8 6.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 42 58 100 7.7 9.4 13.6 140.4 75.4 68.8 2.3 4.3 7.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 10.0 12.7 17.6 160.8 79.8 73.9 2.3 4.6 7.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 12.4 16.5 19.2 156.9 79.1 70.0 3.9 7.0 11.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 15 85 100 15.2 19.6 21.1 177.5 83.0 77.6 4.1 7.3 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 10.3 13.5 17.7 160.1 79.8 71.8 3.4 5.8 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 7.4 8.9 13.3 139.8 75.3 68.9 2.1 4.0 6.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 24 76 100 17.8 23.3 23.7 171.9 81.8 77.3 5.1 9.1 14.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 16 84 100 10.6 13.2 19.4 168.2 81.5 75.6 2.4 4.7 7.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 13 87 100 14.4 19.8 24.4 186.8 84.8 79.8 3.5 6.5 10.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 21 79 100 13.6 17.8 20.6 170.8 81.8 76.7 3.1 6.1 10.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 26 74 100 9.8 12.6 20.3 165.0 80.8 76.0 2.8 5.0 8.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 22 78 100 12.1 16.5 22.1 178.7 83.3 77.9 3.3 6.0 9.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 17 83 100 12.9 16.9 24.5 171.7 82.1 76.7 2.6 5.4 9.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 7.2 11.6 14.1 125.9 71.7 57.2 2.4 5.3 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 23 77 100 10.8 14.5 20.3 175.2 82.6 76.8 3.0 5.4 8.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 86 14 100 5.9 9.8 11.7 127.5 72.0 65.8 2.6 4.9 8.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 8 92 100 12.0 17.3 27.2 198.3 86.7 82.1 2.9 5.4 8.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 9.0 11.3 15.0 147.2 77.0 70.7 2.4 4.7 7.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 22 78 100 11.0 13.7 28.1 168.6 80.5 77.1 2.8 5.3 8.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 19 81 100 10.4 12.7 18.6 165.4 80.8 74.7 2.9 5.1 8.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 8.4 9.5 13.3 135.1 74.0 67.8 2.7 4.8 7.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 9.3 12.3 17.3 156.2 79.0 73.0 2.1 4.3 7.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 15 85 100 13.5 18.1 23.6 183.0 84.1 78.5 3.6 6.5 10.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 23 77 100 10.9 14.8 21.4 178.8 83.1 77.1 3.1 5.5 8.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 8.8 10.2 17.9 141.9 75.7 70.2 2.3 4.4 7.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 11.4 15.6 18.9 172.7 82.0 75.4 3.1 5.7 9.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 8.9 11.9 17.5 156.1 78.6 66.9 2.3 4.5 7.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 12 88 100 16.7 22.5 27.9 187.7 84.7 80.7 4.2 7.7 12.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 7.4 9.0 14.7 147.1 76.9 70.6 2.3 4.0 6.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------