***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.02.2020.-16.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 2.3 6.1 8.6 82.3 54.7 40.3 2.3 5.0 9.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 2.5 6.4 7.6 81.2 55.4 40.8 2.4 5.2 9.3 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 2.8 7.3 8.4 79.9 53.1 39.4 2.7 6.4 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 69 31 0 100 4.0 7.1 8.0 61.0 44.2 33.4 4.6 8.7 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 3.4 6.7 8.3 67.0 46.4 34.9 4.0 7.7 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 3.3 5.8 7.8 67.6 47.0 37.6 3.4 6.4 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 2.0 5.3 7.6 81.5 55.9 40.5 2.0 4.2 7.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 8.7 13.6 8.5 64.2 45.5 34.8 9.9 14.9 21.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 3.5 7.1 9.4 75.8 50.8 38.7 3.5 6.9 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 4.7 8.6 8.9 68.5 47.3 35.7 5.3 9.4 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 68 32 0 100 2.7 5.7 8.6 69.3 47.4 36.2 3.1 6.3 11.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 3.3 6.3 7.8 64.2 45.9 34.9 3.5 7.4 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 3.6 6.6 8.2 64.8 46.0 36.0 3.8 7.6 13.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 5.3 10.9 10.6 79.0 52.6 38.3 5.5 10.0 16.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 69 31 0 100 3.1 5.4 6.7 53.4 42.8 31.8 3.6 7.0 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 2.7 5.3 8.6 70.6 48.7 37.5 2.6 5.6 10.1 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 2.7 5.8 7.5 78.2 54.6 40.1 2.8 5.1 8.3 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 4.3 8.3 10.0 73.4 49.6 37.3 4.8 8.4 13.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 2.7 6.5 7.7 80.0 54.3 40.1 2.6 5.6 10.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 67 33 0 100 3.8 6.9 11.2 65.3 45.0 35.1 4.3 8.2 13.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 2.9 6.7 9.2 78.0 51.6 39.6 2.7 6.3 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 3.5 7.3 7.8 79.3 54.8 41.0 3.8 6.4 9.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 3.1 6.4 8.0 77.8 52.3 38.8 3.1 5.9 9.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 3.4 7.9 9.9 77.3 51.4 38.0 3.5 7.4 13.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 2.8 6.6 8.7 71.5 49.0 36.3 3.0 7.0 13.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 2.5 3.7 7.1 55.2 39.2 30.9 2.8 5.7 10.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 2.6 6.7 8.8 79.7 53.6 39.2 2.6 5.8 10.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 69 31 0 100 2.7 5.1 7.1 57.1 43.3 32.1 3.1 6.7 12.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 66 34 0 100 9.1 15.6 10.7 72.9 48.9 37.1 10.5 16.0 22.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 2.8 6.8 7.8 82.1 55.8 40.9 2.8 5.6 9.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------