***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.02.2020.-01.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 3.3 6.4 8.0 72.0 50.5 40.8 3.2 6.3 10.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 3.2 6.7 7.6 77.8 53.5 41.8 3.4 6.0 9.6 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 4.2 7.6 7.8 68.9 49.0 39.4 4.2 7.8 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 4.5 8.8 9.7 70.9 51.0 38.7 4.6 8.5 13.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 4.4 8.6 10.2 77.1 53.4 40.9 4.4 7.8 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 3.9 8.3 10.9 76.6 53.0 40.5 4.3 7.6 12.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 3.4 7.4 7.7 82.1 55.9 43.6 3.5 6.2 9.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 7.7 13.2 10.8 75.6 52.5 41.0 8.1 12.5 17.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 3.8 7.6 10.6 79.3 53.9 42.1 3.6 6.7 11.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 5.4 9.5 11.2 78.6 53.3 41.6 5.4 8.8 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 3.7 7.0 10.0 76.6 53.0 40.4 3.9 6.5 9.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 4.5 9.0 9.8 75.2 52.8 40.3 4.5 8.2 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 4.7 8.9 10.8 76.3 52.8 40.6 4.8 8.2 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 5.1 11.5 11.4 81.3 55.1 43.3 5.6 9.9 15.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 3.4 8.7 9.5 70.1 52.0 36.7 3.6 8.0 14.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 3.8 7.7 10.2 75.5 52.7 40.0 3.8 7.1 11.4 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 4.4 8.9 7.7 84.0 56.8 42.8 4.6 7.6 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 4.7 8.5 11.7 79.9 53.7 42.1 4.7 7.6 11.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 3.4 7.0 7.7 75.3 52.5 41.3 3.6 6.5 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 4.9 8.9 13.6 76.1 52.5 42.1 4.9 8.3 12.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 3.8 7.3 9.2 73.8 50.8 41.0 3.9 7.2 11.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 4.2 8.4 8.1 82.0 56.3 42.8 4.4 7.2 10.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 3.1 6.1 8.3 74.7 52.3 41.4 3.3 5.8 8.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 4.7 8.6 10.3 76.7 52.5 41.0 4.7 8.0 12.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 3.1 6.4 9.3 72.1 50.6 41.1 2.8 6.3 11.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 4.1 7.8 9.9 71.8 51.6 38.9 3.9 7.4 12.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 3.3 6.6 8.8 75.2 51.9 42.1 3.2 6.2 10.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 3.2 7.1 9.8 72.4 52.2 38.0 3.4 6.6 11.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 7.1 13.1 12.5 81.2 54.3 42.8 7.1 11.7 17.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 3.7 7.5 7.6 74.8 52.1 41.0 3.9 7.0 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------