***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.02.2013.-10.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 96 4 100 9999.0 -2.5 -2.0 0.5 54.6 54.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 94 6 100 -2.2 -2.9 -2.9 -0.4 46.2 46.4 -4.5 -2.4 -0.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 94 6 100 0.4 0.6 -2.1 0.4 53.8 53.6 -1.6 0.2 2.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 94 6 100 -5.1 -4.3 -3.7 1.0 58.6 58.3 -7.2 -5.3 -3.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 93 7 100 -2.5 -1.7 -3.2 1.1 59.4 59.1 -4.5 -2.7 -1.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 89 11 100 -3.3 -2.5 -4.8 1.3 61.8 61.3 -5.4 -3.7 -2.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 93 7 100 -2.0 -2.7 -2.9 -0.4 46.6 46.8 -4.3 -2.3 -0.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 88 12 100 -7.4 -7.8 -5.6 -0.1 48.8 48.9 -9.1 -7.7 -6.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 93 7 100 -1.4 -0.6 -2.7 1.2 60.6 60.3 -3.5 -1.7 0.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 90 10 100 -1.7 -1.8 -4.7 0.3 52.3 52.2 -3.6 -2.0 -0.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 92 8 100 -2.3 -1.7 -3.6 0.9 58.1 57.8 -4.3 -2.5 -0.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 91 9 100 -3.1 -3.0 -4.3 0.5 54.8 54.6 -5.0 -3.4 -1.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 91 9 100 -2.7 -2.3 -4.2 0.8 56.9 56.7 -4.8 -3.0 -1.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 87 13 100 -0.8 -1.6 -4.1 -0.5 45.6 46.0 -2.8 -1.2 0.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 94 6 100 -2.1 -0.9 -2.3 1.4 62.0 61.8 -4.2 -2.3 -0.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 91 9 100 -1.5 -0.8 -3.7 1.2 60.6 60.2 -3.5 -1.8 -0.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 93 7 100 -2.2 -3.0 -3.3 -0.7 44.2 44.4 -4.2 -2.4 -0.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 86 14 100 -3.8 -4.4 -5.9 -0.2 47.9 48.1 -5.7 -4.2 -2.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 95 5 100 -2.1 -2.6 -2.8 -0.3 47.4 47.5 -4.4 -2.3 -0.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 -6.6 -8.9 -8.5 -1.3 37.9 38.9 -9.5 -7.5 -5.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 94 6 100 -1.7 -0.8 -1.9 1.1 59.7 59.3 -3.7 -1.9 -0.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 95 5 100 -2.4 -3.0 -3.0 -0.5 45.8 46.0 -4.5 -2.5 -0.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 95 5 100 -2.3 -2.5 -2.8 -0.1 49.1 49.1 -4.2 -2.4 -0.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 91 9 100 -1.9 -2.1 -3.8 0.1 50.9 50.8 -3.9 -2.2 -0.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 95 5 100 -2.1 -1.7 -2.9 0.6 55.5 55.3 -4.0 -2.2 -0.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 89 11 100 -2.5 -2.5 -4.5 0.3 53.3 53.2 -4.4 -2.8 -1.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 95 5 100 -1.8 -1.5 -2.5 0.5 54.1 53.9 -4.3 -2.0 0.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 93 7 100 -3.1 -2.0 -2.9 1.3 61.3 61.0 -5.2 -3.3 -1.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 -3.5 -4.5 -7.0 -0.6 44.7 45.3 -5.7 -4.1 -2.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 96 4 100 -1.8 -2.1 -2.5 -0.1 49.4 49.4 -4.2 -2.0 0.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------