***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.02.2013.-03.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 5.4 5.6 -0.7 42.0 43.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 7.2 5.3 5.2 -1.0 38.3 40.1 4.7 6.5 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 8.1 6.6 5.9 -0.8 41.3 42.8 5.7 7.5 9.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 1.5 0.6 4.1 -0.3 46.2 46.8 -0.7 0.9 2.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 8.1 6.9 4.6 -0.5 44.1 45.1 5.8 7.5 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 7.3 6.3 3.3 -0.4 45.0 45.8 5.3 6.7 8.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 6.9 4.8 5.0 -1.0 37.8 39.6 4.3 6.1 7.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 -0.7 -1.9 3.3 -1.0 37.4 39.5 -2.2 -1.1 -0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 8.6 7.2 5.3 -0.6 42.7 44.1 6.2 7.9 9.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 8.4 6.7 4.1 -0.9 39.0 41.0 6.1 7.7 9.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 8.5 7.2 4.5 -0.6 43.2 44.4 6.2 7.8 9.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 7.9 6.5 4.1 -0.8 40.0 41.7 5.9 7.4 8.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 8.4 7.0 3.8 -0.7 41.5 43.0 6.2 7.8 9.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 8.7 6.5 4.9 -1.2 36.1 38.3 6.1 8.0 9.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 7.2 6.6 4.7 -0.1 49.1 49.1 4.8 6.7 8.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 8.8 7.7 4.3 -0.5 44.2 45.3 6.6 8.2 9.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 6.7 4.7 4.8 -1.2 36.4 38.4 4.3 6.0 7.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 7.9 5.9 3.5 -1.2 35.4 38.0 5.7 7.2 8.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 7.4 5.4 5.5 -1.0 38.8 40.5 4.7 6.6 8.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 1.9 2.1 1.2 -1.4 31.4 34.3 2.2 3.5 4.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 8.4 7.0 5.7 -0.6 43.1 44.4 5.9 7.7 9.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 7.5 5.3 5.1 -1.1 37.2 39.0 4.8 6.7 8.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 7.8 5.8 5.7 -1.0 38.8 40.6 5.1 7.0 8.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 8.6 6.7 4.9 -1.0 37.8 39.9 6.2 7.9 9.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 7.3 5.9 4.3 -0.6 42.5 43.8 4.9 6.6 8.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 8.0 6.7 3.5 -0.7 40.6 42.2 6.0 7.4 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 7.7 6.1 4.8 -0.8 40.8 42.4 5.3 7.0 8.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 8.1 7.2 4.6 -0.2 48.3 48.5 5.4 7.4 9.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 4.3 2.3 2.5 -1.3 34.0 36.7 2.2 3.7 5.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 7.1 5.4 5.4 -0.9 39.7 41.3 4.7 6.4 8.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------