***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.02.2013.-24.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 9999.0 4.8 6.8 0.0 50.5 50.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 3.9 6.3 6.4 -0.2 47.9 48.4 4.4 6.6 8.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 8.4 7.5 7.1 0.1 51.0 51.1 5.1 7.3 9.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 -2.2 0.9 5.4 0.3 52.9 52.1 -1.8 0.5 2.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 8.4 7.8 5.9 0.4 53.2 52.9 5.0 7.4 9.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 3.9 7.2 4.5 0.5 54.7 54.2 4.3 6.6 8.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 3.5 5.8 6.2 -0.3 47.2 47.8 3.9 6.1 8.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 -0.9 -1.7 4.6 0.1 51.0 52.1 -4.0 -1.8 0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 8.7 8.1 6.5 0.3 52.7 52.7 5.4 7.7 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 8.7 7.9 5.4 0.2 51.5 52.2 5.5 7.7 9.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 8.7 8.3 5.7 0.4 53.6 53.6 5.5 7.8 10.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 8.3 7.6 5.4 0.3 52.4 53.1 5.0 7.3 9.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 8.7 8.1 4.9 0.3 53.0 53.3 5.3 7.7 9.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 5.2 7.9 6.4 0.0 49.7 50.2 5.6 8.0 10.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 4.0 6.9 5.5 0.3 52.5 51.4 4.5 6.6 8.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 9.1 8.6 5.4 0.4 53.9 53.7 5.7 8.0 10.3 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 3.4 5.5 5.9 -0.4 45.7 46.6 4.0 6.1 8.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 8.1 7.1 4.8 -0.1 49.4 50.6 5.0 7.2 9.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 3.8 6.4 6.8 -0.1 48.9 49.2 4.2 6.6 8.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 4.2 2.9 2.4 -0.3 46.5 48.8 1.1 3.3 5.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 8.6 7.9 6.9 0.3 52.3 52.2 5.3 7.6 9.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 3.8 6.2 6.3 -0.3 46.9 47.6 4.3 6.6 8.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 4.2 6.9 7.0 0.0 49.8 50.1 4.6 7.0 9.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 5.1 7.8 6.3 0.1 50.5 51.0 5.5 7.7 9.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 3.9 6.6 5.4 0.1 50.6 50.5 4.3 6.5 8.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 8.3 7.7 4.6 0.3 52.8 53.1 5.1 7.3 9.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 4.1 6.8 5.9 0.0 49.5 49.8 4.6 6.8 9.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 4.4 7.7 5.7 0.4 53.8 52.8 4.9 7.2 9.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 4.5 3.2 3.8 -0.2 48.4 50.0 1.1 3.5 5.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 7.4 6.2 6.6 -0.1 48.9 49.3 4.2 6.4 8.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------