***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.02.2013.-03.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 9999.0 8.0 7.5 -0.1 48.9 49.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 9.3 8.0 7.2 -0.3 47.3 48.5 6.0 8.4 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 6.6 9.4 7.8 -0.1 49.3 49.7 7.1 9.5 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 0.2 3.3 6.2 0.2 52.2 51.7 0.5 3.0 5.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 6.8 10.0 6.6 0.2 51.5 51.2 7.3 9.8 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 10.0 9.5 5.2 0.4 53.9 51.9 6.8 9.0 11.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 9.0 7.6 7.1 -0.3 46.7 47.9 5.7 8.0 10.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 -1.2 0.5 5.3 -0.1 49.2 49.1 -0.9 0.6 2.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 7.3 10.3 7.1 0.1 50.9 50.6 7.9 10.2 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 7.2 10.0 6.1 0.0 49.9 49.7 7.7 10.0 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 7.3 10.4 6.4 0.1 51.5 51.0 7.8 10.2 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 7.0 9.6 6.1 0.0 50.3 49.9 7.4 9.5 11.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 7.6 10.3 5.7 0.1 51.5 50.2 7.9 10.1 12.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 11.1 9.8 6.8 -0.2 48.1 48.7 7.5 10.1 12.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 9.7 9.1 6.5 0.3 53.3 52.6 5.9 8.6 11.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 11.6 10.9 6.1 0.2 52.0 51.1 8.3 10.6 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 8.6 7.1 6.9 -0.4 45.8 47.3 5.4 7.7 9.8 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 7.3 9.7 5.4 -0.2 48.4 48.4 7.6 9.9 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 9.6 8.2 7.5 -0.2 47.9 48.9 6.1 8.5 10.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 6.1 5.0 3.0 -0.4 45.8 46.4 3.7 5.4 7.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 6.9 9.9 7.5 0.1 50.5 50.5 7.5 9.9 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 9.5 8.0 7.2 -0.4 46.2 47.7 6.1 8.5 10.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 10.3 9.0 7.7 -0.2 48.5 49.2 6.8 9.3 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 11.2 10.1 6.8 -0.1 49.0 49.1 7.8 10.2 12.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 9.8 8.6 6.2 -0.1 49.2 49.3 6.3 8.7 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 7.4 9.8 5.4 0.1 50.9 49.7 7.8 9.7 11.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 6.3 8.8 6.7 -0.2 48.0 48.4 6.8 9.1 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 10.7 10.0 6.6 0.4 53.5 52.6 6.4 9.4 12.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 6.8 5.6 4.3 -0.3 47.1 47.5 4.0 6.0 7.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 9.4 8.2 7.4 -0.2 47.9 48.8 6.1 8.4 10.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------