***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.02.2013.-10.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 9999.0 12.1 15.8 148.5 77.3 70.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 27 73 100 11.3 14.3 14.3 158.2 79.3 73.0 2.5 5.2 8.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 12.1 15.3 16.3 156.3 78.9 72.4 2.8 5.6 9.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 13.3 16.3 18.4 151.3 77.9 72.3 3.5 6.7 11.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 26 74 100 14.0 16.4 18.2 151.2 77.8 72.3 3.7 6.9 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 23 77 100 11.0 13.1 19.4 160.9 79.7 74.1 3.7 6.1 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 9.8 12.3 14.2 154.1 78.6 72.2 2.7 4.9 8.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 21 79 100 17.6 21.6 21.6 168.2 80.9 76.2 5.4 9.2 14.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 10.8 12.6 18.3 152.3 78.1 72.4 2.9 5.3 8.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 22 78 100 15.1 18.0 20.2 160.8 79.7 74.9 4.4 7.8 12.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 24 76 100 13.5 16.5 18.3 158.7 79.2 74.0 3.1 6.2 10.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 23 77 100 10.2 12.7 19.5 165.4 80.4 75.5 2.8 5.0 8.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 22 78 100 12.0 14.1 19.6 158.3 79.3 74.1 3.6 6.2 9.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 18 82 100 16.3 20.5 19.8 171.8 81.8 76.6 4.3 7.8 12.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 13.1 15.8 17.4 147.3 77.0 71.6 2.7 5.8 10.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 25 75 100 10.4 12.4 18.6 158.6 79.3 73.8 3.2 5.6 8.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 28 72 100 12.2 15.1 13.5 155.7 78.9 71.9 3.2 6.1 10.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 19 81 100 12.0 14.8 22.7 171.2 81.6 77.1 3.9 6.3 9.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 25 75 100 12.2 15.3 15.0 161.1 79.8 73.7 2.8 5.6 9.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 16 84 100 11.4 14.5 29.4 180.9 82.9 78.6 3.6 6.1 9.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 29 71 100 11.6 13.9 17.4 151.2 77.9 71.7 2.9 5.5 9.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 11.8 14.5 14.3 157.1 79.0 72.8 3.2 6.0 9.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 23 77 100 12.0 15.5 16.3 164.8 80.6 74.7 2.4 5.2 9.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 19 81 100 15.4 18.9 19.8 168.0 81.1 75.9 4.6 7.9 12.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 10.9 12.5 17.6 141.5 75.7 69.4 3.2 5.9 9.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 18 82 100 9.9 11.6 20.4 159.3 79.3 74.6 2.4 4.6 7.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 11.8 14.2 16.6 142.9 76.0 69.5 3.3 6.2 10.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 10.4 12.9 17.7 152.4 78.0 72.5 2.5 5.0 8.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 18 82 100 17.3 22.3 25.5 180.2 83.0 78.4 5.3 8.9 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 9.8 12.4 14.8 155.9 78.9 72.3 2.5 4.9 8.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------