***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.02.2013.-17.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 7.0 14.7 119.3 69.1 57.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 6.2 7.4 12.8 106.9 64.4 54.2 2.3 4.5 7.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 9.6 12.8 14.2 112.6 66.5 55.6 3.0 6.8 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 11.4 17.1 16.0 125.0 71.0 60.3 4.9 9.0 14.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 11.0 15.3 15.8 117.5 68.2 57.6 4.5 8.6 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 9.7 12.9 16.7 117.3 68.0 59.4 4.6 7.8 12.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 4.9 6.2 13.1 110.0 65.8 55.1 1.6 3.4 6.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 18.3 21.6 16.3 110.8 65.1 55.2 9.9 15.2 22.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 9.2 11.9 15.6 111.0 65.6 55.3 3.6 7.0 12.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 12.0 14.2 16.1 107.9 63.8 54.1 5.3 9.5 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 8.4 12.0 14.8 115.7 67.4 56.8 3.0 6.4 11.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 11.9 16.1 14.9 115.6 67.3 57.1 5.0 9.3 15.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 12.3 16.5 16.1 117.9 68.3 58.9 5.4 9.7 15.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 12.3 14.3 16.1 107.2 63.9 54.1 5.3 9.5 15.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 13.5 13.6 14.8 124.2 70.9 59.9 3.6 7.0 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 9.0 13.4 15.4 121.2 69.6 59.7 3.5 6.9 11.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 5.3 6.2 12.3 103.7 63.4 54.0 2.0 4.0 6.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 11.7 13.3 17.6 105.7 62.6 53.2 4.9 9.0 14.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 7.7 9.4 13.1 108.5 64.9 54.8 2.9 5.7 9.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 5.7 14.6 21.4 109.6 64.6 54.9 5.3 9.5 15.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 9.9 13.7 15.4 116.6 67.9 57.0 3.6 7.4 12.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 6.3 7.1 12.4 101.6 62.5 54.0 2.9 5.0 7.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 7.8 9.7 14.0 111.5 66.1 55.8 3.3 6.0 9.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 11.2 13.3 15.9 107.5 63.8 53.7 4.7 8.7 14.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 16.9 17.4 16.9 125.6 71.2 60.1 3.5 7.7 14.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 8.5 12.4 16.0 121.0 69.5 60.3 3.5 6.6 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 8.2 12.5 16.0 122.2 70.1 58.5 2.4 5.5 10.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 9.5 14.6 15.1 123.1 70.4 60.1 3.3 7.1 12.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 19.8 22.6 19.2 107.8 63.7 53.9 9.5 15.8 24.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 7.3 8.9 13.2 109.0 65.2 54.5 2.9 5.5 9.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------