***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.02.2013.-24.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 7.4 13.2 123.3 70.4 61.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 7.9 9.3 13.7 137.9 75.2 65.3 2.0 4.0 6.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 41 59 100 11.8 12.0 13.1 122.7 70.1 60.9 3.6 6.6 10.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 8.7 11.0 14.4 113.7 67.4 57.8 4.1 7.1 10.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 8.8 11.0 13.9 110.0 65.7 56.6 3.8 6.9 11.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 7.0 8.2 14.5 99.8 62.1 53.3 3.2 5.7 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 8.7 10.3 13.8 140.7 76.0 65.6 2.3 4.4 7.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 14.5 16.8 14.4 102.5 62.7 55.3 7.3 12.1 18.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 7.3 9.4 13.8 108.6 64.9 55.9 2.9 5.7 9.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 8.1 9.6 14.3 102.8 62.5 55.0 3.3 6.5 10.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 7.4 8.7 12.5 101.7 62.7 54.4 3.1 5.8 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 8.7 10.2 12.5 102.9 63.1 54.8 3.8 6.9 11.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 9.4 11.1 13.9 104.2 63.8 55.5 4.4 7.6 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 9.6 12.6 16.0 115.9 67.6 58.9 3.9 7.4 12.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 7.3 9.9 13.5 112.9 67.7 56.7 2.2 5.1 9.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 7.3 8.7 13.0 102.0 63.1 54.8 3.4 5.9 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 10.1 11.3 13.4 135.3 74.3 64.2 2.1 4.6 8.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 9.0 10.9 16.4 104.8 63.1 56.5 3.8 7.2 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 8.2 9.3 13.5 133.0 73.7 63.9 2.5 4.6 7.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 12.2 16.2 21.6 113.7 66.9 59.3 5.1 9.5 15.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 7.4 9.7 13.2 112.7 66.6 56.9 2.7 5.5 9.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 9.6 10.3 13.7 130.5 72.8 62.8 2.2 4.7 8.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 7.5 7.9 13.7 126.7 71.6 61.9 2.6 4.4 6.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 10.9 13.2 14.9 110.5 65.4 57.5 5.3 8.9 13.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 10.1 10.1 15.4 122.0 70.0 60.7 2.3 5.0 8.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 7.9 9.7 13.8 106.2 64.8 55.9 3.9 6.5 10.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 8.4 8.9 15.0 127.7 71.9 62.6 3.0 5.0 7.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 8.0 10.2 13.4 107.8 65.6 55.7 2.5 5.6 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 16.3 20.3 18.6 108.8 64.8 57.6 7.3 13.1 21.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 8.7 10.0 13.6 136.6 74.8 65.1 2.3 4.4 7.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------