***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.02.2013.-03.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 12.6 12.8 119.4 69.4 58.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 9.6 12.4 11.5 115.6 68.1 55.4 4.2 7.4 11.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 10.0 12.6 12.2 110.2 66.4 55.8 4.3 7.7 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 11.2 15.4 14.0 118.0 69.2 57.5 4.4 8.4 14.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 10.8 13.5 13.6 112.0 67.1 56.1 5.2 8.7 13.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 9.1 11.7 14.2 115.3 67.5 55.4 3.7 6.9 11.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 8.9 11.7 11.4 114.3 67.8 56.2 3.7 6.9 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 14.6 18.0 14.4 111.7 66.6 55.4 7.3 11.9 17.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 9.1 10.9 13.3 106.2 65.0 54.6 4.5 7.5 11.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 10.5 12.3 13.9 105.0 64.2 54.1 5.1 8.6 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 8.0 10.1 12.8 113.5 67.5 55.9 3.9 6.5 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 10.2 13.1 12.7 115.5 68.1 55.3 4.7 8.1 12.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 9.5 12.2 13.6 117.9 68.5 55.8 4.8 7.7 11.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 11.6 14.0 13.9 104.2 63.7 53.0 4.7 9.0 15.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 11.4 16.7 12.9 118.0 69.5 56.5 3.8 8.1 14.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 9.4 12.3 13.0 116.0 68.2 55.9 4.0 7.2 11.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 9.4 12.5 10.9 119.5 69.5 55.8 4.4 7.4 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 8.9 9.7 15.0 98.3 61.2 52.1 4.7 7.5 10.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 9.6 12.4 11.6 114.6 67.8 55.0 4.1 7.3 11.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 9.8 11.8 19.0 108.8 65.5 55.7 4.7 7.9 12.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 10.0 12.7 12.9 111.7 66.9 55.8 4.5 7.9 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 10.1 13.3 11.1 119.1 69.4 55.8 4.7 8.0 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 7.6 9.4 12.0 110.2 66.4 54.3 3.3 5.9 9.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 9.8 10.8 13.5 99.8 62.1 52.5 5.1 8.1 11.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 15.2 15.3 14.9 124.3 71.0 59.5 3.3 7.0 12.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 13.8 14.0 13.9 125.4 71.2 57.7 3.9 7.3 11.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 12.4 12.4 14.1 122.5 70.4 59.5 3.2 6.2 10.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 9.2 12.6 13.3 116.5 68.8 56.3 3.7 7.1 11.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 13.1 14.5 16.5 101.0 62.3 53.2 6.6 10.7 15.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 9.9 12.7 11.7 113.4 67.3 55.9 4.0 7.4 12.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------