***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.02.2013.-03.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 9999.0 45.9 56.6 127.3 75.0 68.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 42.1 45.4 52.3 127.9 75.7 69.3 22.3 29.9 38.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 53.9 57.9 55.8 124.6 73.8 67.6 27.1 37.7 50.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 57.1 61.8 62.8 126.9 73.8 67.0 31.4 42.2 54.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 42 58 100 55.2 58.4 61.4 122.4 71.9 64.9 31.8 42.0 53.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 46.2 47.8 64.7 122.0 72.3 66.6 27.8 35.5 43.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 39.2 42.7 52.5 128.4 75.8 69.1 21.1 28.3 36.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 44 56 100 74.9 79.3 66.7 122.4 72.3 65.4 50.7 61.8 73.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 39.3 47.6 60.9 118.9 70.1 63.3 28.0 36.1 45.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 47.4 56.2 64.6 118.0 69.8 63.2 35.5 44.3 53.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 45 55 100 46.4 49.4 58.3 121.9 71.6 64.7 27.3 35.9 45.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 44 56 100 51.3 55.8 59.6 124.6 73.5 66.4 31.7 40.6 50.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 53.8 56.5 63.2 124.2 73.6 67.7 32.2 41.1 50.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 62.0 64.5 65.8 122.5 73.5 67.0 38.8 48.3 58.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 56.4 59.9 58.7 125.7 72.2 65.5 21.7 34.9 51.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 46.8 49.7 60.0 124.0 72.9 66.6 26.4 34.9 44.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 42.8 45.4 50.2 126.6 74.8 68.2 24.3 31.7 39.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 43.4 52.9 71.8 117.9 70.0 63.8 31.3 40.1 49.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 45.8 49.1 53.3 127.7 75.8 69.4 24.6 32.7 41.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 57.5 62.5 91.4 126.5 74.9 68.3 34.5 44.3 54.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 51.1 54.3 58.8 122.7 72.3 65.6 27.1 37.2 48.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 43.3 45.6 51.6 125.2 74.2 67.9 24.7 32.2 40.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 41.3 44.1 56.1 126.8 75.7 69.3 22.3 29.6 37.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 55.7 57.6 64.1 119.6 71.2 64.9 35.6 44.3 53.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 57.0 62.1 64.8 128.3 75.3 68.7 25.5 37.3 51.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 46.0 48.8 64.2 128.0 75.8 70.0 29.5 36.1 43.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 49.1 53.2 61.8 128.6 75.9 69.5 22.9 32.5 43.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 51.8 54.9 59.5 124.6 72.3 65.8 23.4 34.5 48.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 42 58 100 79.0 83.5 79.8 122.0 72.7 66.4 53.2 64.9 77.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 44.3 48.2 53.2 127.3 75.3 69.1 21.2 30.1 40.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------