***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.02.2019.-17.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 -1.0 -0.9 -1.3 0.8 57.6 56.2 -3.2 -1.6 -0.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 -2.2 -2.1 -1.5 0.7 57.0 55.9 -5.0 -2.9 -1.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 0.1 -0.3 -1.6 0.4 53.9 53.6 -2.6 -0.7 1.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 -9.3 -6.9 -4.8 -0.1 49.2 50.4 -9.0 -6.8 -4.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 -2.4 -3.1 -3.7 0.1 51.1 52.5 -5.1 -3.2 -1.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 -3.2 -3.8 -6.0 0.1 50.7 52.9 -5.6 -3.9 -2.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 -1.9 -1.8 -1.5 0.8 57.3 56.2 -4.5 -2.6 -0.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 -11.3 -9.4 -6.2 -0.5 45.1 48.0 -10.8 -8.9 -7.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 -1.7 -2.6 -3.8 -0.1 49.3 51.8 -4.5 -2.5 -0.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 -4.6 -2.8 -5.4 -0.3 46.9 49.6 -4.3 -2.5 -0.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 -1.9 -3.0 -4.7 -0.3 47.5 50.2 -4.5 -2.7 -1.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 -5.9 -4.3 -5.5 -0.5 45.1 48.3 -5.5 -3.8 -2.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 -5.1 -3.4 -5.4 -0.4 46.5 49.3 -4.8 -3.0 -1.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 -4.3 -2.7 -4.5 -0.6 44.1 47.2 -3.9 -2.1 -0.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 -1.5 -1.2 -2.9 0.9 59.0 58.6 -3.9 -2.1 -0.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 -4.0 -2.3 -5.1 -0.2 48.4 50.7 -3.8 -2.1 -0.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 -2.2 -2.0 -1.6 0.7 56.6 55.9 -4.6 -2.7 -1.0 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 -6.7 -5.1 -6.2 -0.6 44.0 47.2 -6.2 -4.5 -2.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 -2.1 -2.3 -1.7 0.6 55.7 54.9 -4.9 -2.9 -1.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 -10.2 -8.0 -6.9 -0.3 47.2 48.9 -9.6 -7.7 -5.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 -1.9 -2.5 -2.3 0.2 52.3 53.0 -4.7 -2.8 -0.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 -2.3 -2.4 -1.8 0.5 55.2 54.7 -5.0 -3.0 -1.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 -5.0 -2.5 -2.1 0.3 53.5 53.3 -4.7 -2.9 -1.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 -5.3 -3.5 -4.4 -0.5 45.2 47.9 -4.9 -3.0 -1.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 -2.0 -2.2 -2.4 0.5 55.5 55.2 -4.5 -2.7 -1.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 -2.1 -2.7 -5.1 0.1 51.0 52.8 -4.3 -2.8 -1.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 -1.7 -1.6 -1.7 0.7 57.2 56.0 -4.5 -2.4 -0.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 -2.8 -3.4 -4.4 0.1 50.5 51.7 -5.3 -3.5 -1.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 -8.1 -6.1 -6.7 -0.5 45.5 48.1 -7.5 -5.5 -3.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 -1.7 -1.6 -1.4 0.8 57.5 56.3 -4.4 -2.4 -0.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------