***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.02.2019.-10.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 93 7 100 6.6 6.5 5.5 0.1 51.0 51.0 3.7 6.3 8.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 91 9 100 6.4 5.8 5.3 -0.3 47.6 47.7 3.8 6.1 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 7.9 6.1 4.8 -1.2 41.8 42.4 4.9 7.2 9.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 90 10 100 1.4 0.3 1.5 -0.8 44.2 44.3 -1.1 1.1 3.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 7.7 5.8 3.1 -1.3 40.7 41.2 4.8 7.0 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 90 10 100 6.5 6.1 2.8 0.0 50.0 49.9 4.1 6.1 8.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 93 7 100 5.9 5.8 5.5 0.1 50.9 50.9 3.3 5.6 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 -2.6 -2.3 1.2 -2.3 33.2 34.1 -2.3 -0.8 0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 8.6 6.3 3.8 -1.6 38.7 39.4 5.5 7.7 9.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 4.5 5.0 1.7 -2.6 31.9 32.9 5.1 7.3 9.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 8.2 5.8 3.2 -1.7 37.9 38.6 5.1 7.3 9.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 8.0 5.7 2.4 -1.6 37.8 38.6 5.1 7.2 9.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 7.8 6.2 3.6 -1.0 42.4 42.8 4.9 7.1 9.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 4.8 5.0 2.8 -3.2 29.6 30.8 5.5 7.9 10.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 96 4 100 6.4 7.0 4.7 0.8 56.0 55.8 3.9 6.2 8.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 8.1 6.6 3.1 -1.0 42.8 43.2 5.3 7.5 9.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 91 9 100 6.0 5.4 4.9 -0.4 47.2 47.4 3.7 5.7 7.6 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 3.8 4.0 0.9 -3.2 28.3 29.6 4.6 6.5 8.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 87 13 100 6.8 5.5 5.0 -0.8 44.6 44.9 3.7 6.2 8.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 1.1 1.5 0.1 -2.2 33.6 34.8 1.4 3.3 5.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 8.0 6.2 4.7 -1.3 40.6 41.2 5.2 7.4 9.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 7.0 5.4 4.6 -1.0 42.5 43.0 4.2 6.4 8.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 7.3 5.3 4.5 -1.4 40.1 40.8 4.3 6.6 8.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 4.9 5.1 2.8 -3.0 30.1 31.2 5.6 7.9 10.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 91 9 100 6.3 6.2 4.6 0.1 51.1 51.1 4.0 6.0 7.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 88 12 100 7.0 6.9 3.5 0.3 53.1 52.9 4.8 6.6 8.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 92 8 100 6.9 7.0 5.4 0.4 53.1 52.9 4.3 6.6 8.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 93 7 100 7.6 6.8 2.7 -0.5 46.1 46.1 4.9 7.3 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 1.0 1.2 0.5 -3.0 29.2 30.5 1.7 3.6 5.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 91 9 100 6.4 5.8 5.4 -0.2 48.4 48.5 3.6 6.0 8.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------