***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.02.2019.-24.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 5.1 7.2 6.6 -0.3 47.0 48.1 5.4 7.5 9.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 7.5 6.3 6.5 -0.2 48.2 48.7 4.4 6.6 8.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 8.3 7.1 7.0 -0.2 48.2 49.0 5.1 7.3 9.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 1.5 0.0 3.9 -0.4 46.0 46.9 -1.8 0.5 2.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 4.7 6.8 5.0 -0.5 45.8 47.2 5.0 7.4 9.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 3.3 5.7 3.5 -0.7 43.7 46.2 4.3 6.6 8.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 7.0 5.8 6.5 -0.3 47.0 47.9 3.9 6.1 8.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 -4.4 -2.8 3.7 -0.8 42.2 45.2 -4.0 -1.8 0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 8.7 7.2 5.6 -0.5 45.9 47.4 5.4 7.7 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 5.1 6.8 4.4 -0.8 42.9 45.5 5.5 7.7 9.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 4.9 7.0 4.8 -0.6 44.4 46.4 5.5 7.8 10.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 4.4 6.5 4.6 -0.7 43.7 46.3 5.0 7.3 9.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 4.6 6.7 4.0 -0.7 42.6 45.8 5.3 7.7 9.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 5.2 7.5 5.8 -0.4 46.3 47.8 5.6 8.0 10.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 7.3 6.6 4.9 0.0 50.5 50.4 4.5 6.6 8.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 5.0 7.2 4.4 -0.6 44.0 46.3 5.7 8.0 10.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 6.9 5.8 6.4 -0.2 47.6 48.2 4.0 6.1 8.0 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 4.4 6.2 4.3 -0.8 42.4 45.4 5.0 7.2 9.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 7.5 6.4 6.8 -0.1 49.0 49.3 4.2 6.6 8.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 0.6 2.0 2.0 -1.0 40.0 44.2 1.1 3.3 5.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 8.5 7.2 6.3 -0.3 46.8 48.1 5.3 7.6 9.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 7.5 6.4 6.5 -0.1 48.9 49.1 4.3 6.6 8.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 7.9 6.9 7.0 -0.1 49.4 49.8 4.6 7.0 9.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 5.0 7.1 5.6 -0.5 45.2 47.1 5.5 7.7 9.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 7.5 6.0 4.9 -0.5 45.6 47.1 4.3 6.5 8.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 4.6 6.5 4.0 -0.6 44.0 46.8 5.1 7.3 9.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 4.1 6.2 5.8 -0.5 45.1 46.8 4.6 6.8 9.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 8.1 6.8 4.3 -0.3 47.2 47.8 4.9 7.2 9.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 0.6 2.3 3.5 -0.9 41.5 45.0 1.1 3.5 5.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 7.3 6.2 6.5 -0.2 48.2 48.8 4.2 6.4 8.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------