***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.02.2019.-03.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 6.5 9.8 8.0 0.3 53.3 52.7 6.9 9.4 11.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 5.6 9.1 8.2 0.6 55.5 54.6 6.0 8.4 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 6.6 10.1 8.5 0.4 54.1 53.2 7.1 9.5 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 -0.1 3.3 5.4 0.2 52.2 51.3 0.5 3.0 5.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 6.7 10.0 6.4 0.1 51.3 50.8 7.3 9.8 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 6.4 9.2 4.9 0.2 51.6 50.4 6.8 9.0 11.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 9.0 8.7 8.1 0.5 54.8 54.2 5.7 8.0 10.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 -1.4 0.5 5.1 -0.1 48.6 49.1 -0.9 0.6 2.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 7.2 10.4 7.1 0.1 51.4 51.0 7.9 10.2 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 6.9 10.0 5.9 -0.1 49.5 49.6 7.7 10.0 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 7.0 10.3 6.3 0.1 50.6 50.1 7.8 10.2 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 6.6 9.5 5.9 0.0 49.6 49.7 7.4 9.5 11.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 7.4 10.0 5.3 -0.1 48.9 49.2 7.9 10.1 12.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 7.0 10.5 7.3 0.3 52.7 52.4 7.5 10.1 12.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 5.4 9.4 6.2 0.6 55.3 53.7 5.9 8.6 11.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 7.7 10.7 5.9 0.1 50.6 50.1 8.3 10.6 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 5.0 8.3 8.1 0.5 55.2 54.7 5.4 7.7 9.8 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 6.8 9.8 5.8 -0.1 49.3 49.7 7.6 9.9 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 5.6 9.4 8.4 0.6 55.8 54.7 6.1 8.5 10.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 3.0 5.1 3.2 -0.3 46.6 48.8 3.7 5.4 7.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 6.9 10.1 7.7 0.2 52.0 51.7 7.5 9.9 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 5.6 9.3 8.3 0.6 55.7 55.0 6.1 8.5 10.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 6.4 10.1 8.6 0.6 55.7 54.5 6.8 9.3 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 7.1 10.4 7.2 0.2 51.6 51.4 7.8 10.2 12.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 5.9 9.0 6.2 0.2 51.6 51.4 6.3 8.7 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 7.2 9.6 5.0 -0.1 49.0 49.7 7.8 9.7 11.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 6.4 9.4 7.3 0.2 52.1 51.9 6.8 9.1 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 5.6 9.9 5.7 0.3 53.0 51.8 6.4 9.4 12.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 3.2 5.8 4.9 -0.2 48.3 49.3 4.0 6.0 7.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 5.7 9.1 8.2 0.5 55.3 54.3 6.1 8.4 10.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------