***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.02.2019.-03.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 7.8 7.5 6.7 0.2 52.9 52.4 5.5 7.3 8.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 7.0 6.8 6.7 0.2 52.5 52.2 4.7 6.5 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 8.0 7.3 6.8 -0.1 48.9 49.0 5.7 7.5 9.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 1.5 0.8 3.5 -0.2 47.9 47.8 -0.7 0.9 2.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 8.1 7.1 4.8 -0.3 46.0 46.1 5.8 7.5 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 7.3 6.7 3.7 0.0 49.6 49.0 5.3 6.7 8.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 6.6 6.5 6.7 0.3 53.4 53.1 4.3 6.1 7.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 -2.4 -1.8 3.4 -0.9 38.6 40.4 -2.2 -1.1 -0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 8.6 7.4 5.5 -0.4 45.0 45.5 6.2 7.9 9.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 5.8 6.7 4.1 -0.9 38.8 40.5 6.1 7.7 9.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 5.9 7.2 4.8 -0.5 43.4 44.1 6.2 7.8 9.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 8.1 6.8 4.3 -0.6 42.5 43.5 5.9 7.4 8.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 6.0 7.3 4.4 -0.4 44.3 45.0 6.2 7.8 9.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 5.8 7.0 5.5 -0.8 40.7 42.3 6.1 8.0 9.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 86 14 100 7.1 7.4 5.2 0.6 57.0 55.9 4.8 6.7 8.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 8.9 7.8 4.5 -0.3 45.9 46.0 6.6 8.2 9.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 6.5 6.3 6.5 0.2 52.2 52.1 4.3 6.0 7.6 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 5.2 6.0 3.8 -1.1 36.7 39.1 5.7 7.2 8.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 7.2 6.7 6.7 0.1 51.2 51.1 4.7 6.6 8.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 1.9 2.6 2.0 -0.9 37.7 40.0 2.2 3.5 4.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 8.3 7.4 6.3 -0.3 47.0 47.2 5.9 7.7 9.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 7.2 6.7 6.5 0.0 50.3 50.4 4.8 6.7 8.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 7.6 6.9 6.7 -0.1 48.9 49.1 5.1 7.0 8.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 5.9 7.0 5.4 -0.8 40.1 41.7 6.2 7.9 9.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 7.2 6.8 5.2 0.1 51.8 51.2 4.9 6.6 8.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 5.8 7.4 4.1 0.0 50.1 49.5 6.0 7.4 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 7.6 7.3 6.2 0.2 52.7 52.2 5.3 7.0 8.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 8.0 7.4 4.2 0.0 49.7 49.4 5.4 7.4 9.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 1.8 2.6 3.2 -1.0 36.7 39.2 2.2 3.7 5.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 7.0 6.7 6.7 0.2 52.7 52.3 4.7 6.4 8.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------