***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.02.2019.-10.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 7.9 9.3 13.7 143.1 76.0 67.9 2.3 4.3 6.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 10.5 10.9 11.4 125.7 71.6 61.6 2.5 5.2 8.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 12.1 17.2 16.6 174.7 82.1 74.3 2.8 5.6 9.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 22 78 100 14.2 21.5 20.1 197.0 85.5 78.4 3.5 6.7 11.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 20 80 100 14.6 21.4 19.6 197.1 85.5 78.1 3.7 6.9 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 26 74 100 10.8 14.4 17.2 176.7 82.7 75.7 3.7 6.1 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 6.4 8.5 9.9 110.2 66.9 57.4 2.7 4.9 8.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 19 81 100 17.8 24.6 22.9 194.7 84.9 78.8 5.4 9.2 14.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 15 85 100 11.6 17.9 20.4 211.8 87.8 81.3 2.9 5.3 8.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 11 89 100 16.1 24.0 23.2 212.3 87.8 82.0 4.4 7.8 12.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 9 91 100 14.9 25.8 23.2 235.0 90.1 83.6 3.1 6.2 10.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 16 84 100 10.7 16.1 21.4 208.1 86.9 80.2 2.8 5.0 8.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 18 82 100 12.3 19.3 22.6 215.4 88.4 81.4 3.6 6.2 9.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 18 82 100 16.3 21.7 21.6 181.8 83.5 77.1 4.3 7.8 12.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 16 84 100 14.8 26.0 20.6 229.7 88.7 81.0 2.7 5.8 10.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 19 81 100 10.8 16.4 20.6 210.5 87.5 80.4 3.2 5.6 8.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 7.9 10.0 9.4 107.7 66.0 55.7 3.2 6.1 10.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 21 79 100 11.9 16.0 21.2 183.9 83.9 78.3 3.9 6.3 9.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 11.4 13.2 13.2 141.9 75.6 66.1 2.8 5.6 9.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 10.2 11.9 22.3 145.7 76.3 70.8 3.6 6.1 9.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 22 78 100 12.2 17.5 18.3 187.5 84.2 77.0 2.9 5.5 9.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 7.6 11.1 11.2 122.7 70.5 60.1 3.2 6.0 9.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 11.1 15.2 15.8 162.5 80.0 71.9 2.4 5.2 9.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 16 84 100 15.7 21.6 20.3 191.6 85.2 78.8 4.6 7.9 12.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 10.7 13.2 16.1 150.0 77.3 70.0 3.2 5.9 9.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 25 75 100 9.5 13.4 19.1 181.1 83.5 75.9 2.4 4.6 7.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 11.5 13.2 13.5 134.4 73.9 66.2 3.3 6.2 10.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 17 83 100 11.5 20.1 20.8 228.7 89.1 82.0 2.5 5.0 8.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 25 75 100 16.6 20.6 21.0 164.3 80.4 75.0 5.3 8.9 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 9.6 10.5 12.3 134.8 73.9 64.7 2.5 4.9 8.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------