***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.02.2019.-17.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 3.2 6.9 8.2 78.7 54.0 41.9 2.9 6.0 10.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 2.4 6.2 8.1 89.7 59.2 43.7 2.3 4.5 7.7 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 3.6 7.6 8.1 77.0 52.7 41.9 3.0 6.8 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 5.3 9.2 9.2 71.6 50.6 40.0 4.9 9.0 14.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 11.5 9.8 9.7 80.4 54.0 43.5 4.5 8.6 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 9.9 8.3 9.0 75.4 52.0 45.4 4.6 7.8 12.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 1.7 5.2 8.2 93.1 61.0 45.3 1.6 3.4 6.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 9.6 17.1 10.9 83.3 54.9 42.5 9.9 15.2 22.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 9.4 8.3 9.7 81.0 54.7 43.4 3.6 7.0 12.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 12.6 11.0 10.5 82.6 54.9 43.0 5.3 9.5 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 3.2 6.3 9.1 73.8 49.7 38.3 3.0 6.4 11.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 5.0 9.9 9.5 78.1 52.1 41.1 5.0 9.3 15.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 5.8 8.8 8.3 66.7 47.1 39.5 5.4 9.7 15.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 12.4 10.9 10.7 83.0 54.7 45.5 5.3 9.5 15.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 3.7 6.6 8.1 62.4 48.4 36.7 3.6 7.0 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 9.6 7.2 9.0 73.8 50.8 41.7 3.5 6.9 11.9 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 2.2 5.6 8.1 91.4 60.6 45.2 2.0 4.0 6.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 12.1 11.8 12.1 91.0 58.5 46.9 4.9 9.0 14.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 3.1 7.3 8.2 86.1 57.4 43.6 2.9 5.7 9.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 5.4 11.9 15.5 90.1 57.6 43.6 5.3 9.5 15.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 10.0 8.2 8.9 78.4 53.0 42.7 3.6 7.4 12.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 3.0 6.5 8.3 87.5 59.1 45.0 2.9 5.0 7.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 7.9 7.1 8.8 84.1 56.0 45.3 3.3 6.0 9.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 11.6 10.5 10.5 85.2 56.2 46.2 4.7 8.7 14.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 11.4 8.3 9.0 75.3 51.9 41.5 3.5 7.7 14.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 3.6 7.3 10.0 80.6 53.3 45.2 3.5 6.6 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 2.8 6.7 8.6 78.9 54.1 42.0 2.4 5.5 10.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 4.0 7.1 8.7 69.0 50.4 39.9 3.3 7.1 12.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 20.0 20.5 13.9 94.7 59.8 47.4 9.5 15.8 24.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 3.0 7.0 8.1 86.3 57.7 43.3 2.9 5.5 9.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------