***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.02.2019.-24.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 6.4 7.7 12.4 102.9 64.3 53.8 3.0 5.2 8.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 5.3 6.4 10.4 100.4 63.9 52.0 2.0 4.0 6.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 8.4 10.0 12.3 101.7 64.0 53.2 3.6 6.6 10.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 8.7 10.2 13.2 102.4 64.3 54.5 4.1 7.1 10.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 8.7 10.4 13.2 102.4 63.7 54.8 3.8 6.9 11.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 7.3 9.4 14.0 113.2 67.3 57.4 3.2 5.7 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 5.8 7.3 10.5 104.1 65.1 52.5 2.3 4.4 7.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 14.7 16.3 13.5 97.0 61.2 53.6 7.3 12.1 18.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 7.5 9.0 13.9 102.3 63.4 54.6 2.9 5.7 9.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 8.4 9.8 14.3 101.2 62.7 54.8 3.3 6.5 10.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 7.4 8.8 12.5 100.9 62.9 54.2 3.1 5.8 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 8.7 9.8 12.3 98.5 61.9 53.8 3.8 6.9 11.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 9.5 11.4 13.7 106.1 64.5 56.1 4.4 7.6 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 9.7 10.4 14.1 95.2 60.9 51.3 3.9 7.4 12.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 7.3 8.5 12.3 97.9 63.7 51.7 2.2 5.1 9.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 7.2 9.0 12.9 105.2 64.4 55.3 3.4 5.9 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 6.4 8.0 10.2 102.6 64.9 52.6 2.1 4.6 8.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 9.5 10.7 15.3 99.8 62.2 54.1 3.8 7.2 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 5.9 6.7 10.5 96.7 62.3 51.2 2.5 4.6 7.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 12.2 13.1 17.6 94.0 60.0 52.1 5.1 9.5 15.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 7.3 8.9 13.5 103.1 64.0 54.4 2.7 5.5 9.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 6.5 7.1 10.1 96.5 62.0 50.8 2.2 4.7 8.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 5.5 5.9 11.1 93.5 60.9 50.7 2.6 4.4 6.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 11.0 12.5 14.3 100.9 63.1 54.0 5.3 8.9 13.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 6.9 8.5 14.2 105.2 65.2 55.5 2.3 5.0 8.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 8.1 9.8 13.7 106.5 65.1 55.9 3.9 6.5 10.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 6.2 7.4 13.1 105.0 65.0 54.7 3.0 5.0 7.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 7.9 9.8 12.4 102.1 64.3 53.9 2.5 5.6 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 16.8 18.7 16.3 98.8 61.9 53.3 7.3 13.1 21.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 5.8 7.0 10.8 100.0 63.7 52.0 2.3 4.4 7.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------