***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.02.2019.-03.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 8.4 10.5 12.7 109.5 66.3 54.1 2.9 6.0 10.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 9.5 11.1 10.5 103.9 64.2 51.4 4.2 7.4 11.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 10.0 12.4 12.6 108.3 65.8 53.8 4.3 7.7 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 4.9 13.1 13.8 102.5 63.9 50.7 4.4 8.4 14.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 10.7 12.9 14.0 106.8 65.2 53.2 5.2 8.7 13.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 3.7 11.4 14.7 109.8 66.4 51.2 3.7 6.9 11.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 9.0 10.3 10.1 101.5 63.5 50.5 3.7 6.9 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 14.7 18.8 15.4 116.6 68.4 54.0 7.3 11.9 17.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 9.1 10.9 14.3 105.6 64.7 53.9 4.5 7.5 11.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 10.6 13.1 15.6 112.2 66.8 54.9 5.1 8.6 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 8.0 10.2 14.1 114.2 67.6 53.9 3.9 6.5 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 10.3 13.2 13.7 116.1 68.4 52.4 4.7 8.1 12.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 4.8 11.6 14.3 110.7 66.5 51.0 4.8 7.7 11.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 12.0 15.5 16.2 111.3 66.9 55.9 4.7 9.0 15.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 4.1 13.0 12.6 96.8 62.7 47.1 3.8 8.1 14.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 4.3 11.8 13.9 111.4 66.8 51.9 4.0 7.2 11.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 9.5 10.2 9.5 96.4 61.7 49.7 4.4 7.4 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 9.2 11.3 16.5 114.7 67.6 55.6 4.7 7.5 10.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 9.5 11.3 11.0 104.8 64.6 52.5 4.1 7.3 11.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 9.9 12.7 19.8 116.1 68.1 54.7 4.7 7.9 12.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 10.1 12.1 13.4 106.2 64.9 53.3 4.5 7.9 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 10.0 11.0 10.2 97.7 62.1 50.9 4.7 8.0 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 7.5 9.0 12.1 105.4 65.0 53.9 3.3 5.9 9.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 9.9 12.1 15.1 111.6 66.8 55.4 5.1 8.1 11.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 9.9 12.5 14.2 108.0 65.6 53.6 3.3 7.0 12.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 4.1 12.1 14.0 109.5 66.6 49.7 3.9 7.3 11.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 8.6 11.1 13.6 111.5 67.0 54.8 3.2 6.2 10.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 3.9 10.9 13.4 102.5 64.1 49.3 3.7 7.1 11.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 13.3 17.0 17.9 118.2 68.8 55.8 6.6 10.7 15.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 9.8 12.1 11.2 107.3 65.6 52.3 4.0 7.4 12.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------