***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.02.2019.-03.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 33.7 36.9 47.1 107.7 62.5 56.1 20.4 29.0 39.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 33.0 35.4 40.4 104.8 60.7 54.6 22.3 29.9 38.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 43.3 50.4 49.5 113.3 66.1 59.4 27.1 37.7 50.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 47.1 54.6 56.3 113.9 66.3 59.3 31.4 42.2 54.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 55.7 55.5 56.5 117.7 68.7 61.3 31.8 42.0 53.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 45.8 44.9 54.8 115.8 67.6 61.3 27.8 35.5 43.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 31.6 32.6 38.7 102.3 59.1 53.2 21.1 28.3 36.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 65.8 77.6 62.7 120.7 70.5 63.6 50.7 61.8 73.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 39.8 47.6 58.3 119.6 70.0 62.6 28.0 36.1 45.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 47.6 57.8 63.6 123.0 72.1 64.9 35.5 44.3 53.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 42 58 100 47.0 50.6 58.8 125.3 73.1 65.5 27.3 35.9 45.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 45 55 100 51.1 53.8 56.8 121.7 71.0 63.9 31.7 40.6 50.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 41 59 100 52.4 54.0 58.9 120.8 70.6 63.7 32.2 41.1 50.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 60.7 60.0 62.6 115.7 67.9 61.8 38.8 48.3 58.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 41.1 51.2 53.6 112.8 65.6 58.3 21.7 34.9 51.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 46.2 47.6 56.4 120.8 70.5 63.3 26.4 34.9 44.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 34.9 35.2 37.2 99.5 57.5 52.2 24.3 31.7 39.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 43.8 52.9 65.1 119.3 70.0 63.1 31.3 40.1 49.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 36.2 39.3 42.8 106.7 61.9 56.0 24.6 32.7 41.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 48.8 53.8 75.3 110.5 64.4 58.6 34.5 44.3 54.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 42.3 49.9 54.1 115.5 67.5 60.4 27.1 37.2 48.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 35.6 36.1 39.8 100.8 58.0 53.2 24.7 32.2 40.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 33.0 36.5 47.8 109.8 63.9 58.4 22.3 29.6 37.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 55.8 56.4 60.2 119.1 69.8 62.8 35.6 44.3 53.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 43.8 48.2 53.5 108.4 62.9 56.5 25.5 37.3 51.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 42 58 100 44.3 44.4 56.8 116.8 68.1 61.2 29.5 36.1 43.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 37.6 40.7 48.7 107.0 62.0 55.7 22.9 32.5 43.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 39.5 50.3 55.3 117.6 68.3 61.2 23.4 34.5 48.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 69.8 79.5 69.0 117.0 68.6 61.8 53.2 64.9 77.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 34.0 37.5 42.4 106.6 61.9 55.5 21.2 30.1 40.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------