***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.02.2018.-11.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 88 12 100 -1.3 -1.1 -1.7 0.7 55.1 54.6 -4.2 -1.8 0.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 -1.6 -2.8 -3.0 -0.6 45.5 46.2 -4.3 -2.2 -0.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 0.7 0.5 -1.8 0.4 53.0 52.7 -1.7 0.2 2.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 87 13 100 -4.7 -4.2 -3.5 1.1 58.8 58.2 -7.2 -5.2 -3.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 85 15 100 -2.1 -1.2 -2.2 1.6 62.5 61.6 -4.5 -2.6 -0.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 20 80 100 -0.9 -0.4 -3.2 3.2 76.9 75.5 -5.3 -3.5 -1.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 -1.5 -2.7 -3.0 -0.7 45.1 45.7 -4.2 -2.2 -0.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 -5.9 -5.9 -3.6 2.3 69.4 68.3 -8.8 -7.5 -6.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 42 58 100 0.2 0.1 -2.0 2.1 66.4 65.4 -3.5 -1.6 0.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 43 57 100 -0.1 -0.3 -3.4 1.9 65.4 64.5 -3.5 -1.8 -0.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 -0.2 -0.2 -2.1 2.4 68.6 67.6 -4.2 -2.3 -0.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 -1.1 -0.9 -2.3 2.8 72.4 71.2 -5.0 -3.3 -1.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 26 74 100 -0.2 -0.1 -2.4 2.9 72.6 71.7 -4.8 -2.8 -1.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 85 15 100 -0.8 -1.0 -3.9 0.3 52.4 52.5 -2.9 -1.2 0.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 43 57 100 -0.2 -0.2 -1.7 2.1 67.8 66.8 -4.3 -2.3 -0.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 0.3 0.4 -2.4 2.6 70.4 69.3 -3.5 -1.7 -0.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 -1.6 -3.5 -3.9 -1.5 38.6 40.0 -4.1 -2.3 -0.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 85 15 100 -3.6 -3.0 -4.3 1.4 61.0 60.5 -5.6 -4.0 -2.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 -1.7 -2.5 -2.7 -0.3 47.7 48.2 -4.3 -2.2 -0.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 42 58 100 -5.0 -5.4 -5.1 1.7 64.4 63.5 -9.4 -7.2 -5.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 87 13 100 -1.4 -0.7 -1.6 1.3 59.8 59.2 -3.8 -1.8 0.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 -1.8 -3.5 -3.6 -1.2 40.7 42.0 -4.4 -2.5 -0.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 -1.9 -2.3 -2.6 0.2 51.4 51.4 -4.3 -2.4 -0.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 85 15 100 -1.7 -1.5 -3.2 0.9 56.8 56.6 -3.8 -2.1 -0.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 -1.6 -1.2 -1.9 1.0 58.2 57.4 -3.9 -2.1 -0.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 18 82 100 -0.2 0.3 -1.9 3.3 77.8 76.7 -4.2 -2.6 -1.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 87 13 100 -1.3 -1.2 -2.0 0.7 55.4 54.8 -4.3 -1.9 0.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 87 13 100 -2.7 -1.7 -2.8 1.6 62.4 61.8 -5.2 -3.2 -1.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 41 59 100 -2.4 -2.6 -4.9 1.8 64.7 63.8 -5.6 -4.0 -2.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 -1.3 -2.0 -2.4 -0.1 49.1 49.3 -4.0 -1.8 0.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------