***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.02.2018.-25.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 -2.4 -1.8 -2.3 -1.2 37.3 41.3 -2.1 -0.7 0.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 -4.1 -3.5 -2.6 -1.4 34.9 39.5 -3.7 -1.9 -0.3 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 -1.5 -1.0 -2.5 -1.4 34.4 39.7 -1.2 0.4 1.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 -8.1 -7.7 -5.9 -1.8 31.1 37.4 -7.4 -5.5 -3.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 -4.1 -3.8 -5.2 -1.7 32.1 38.7 -3.7 -2.1 -0.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 -4.6 -4.2 -7.0 -1.6 33.5 40.3 -4.3 -2.7 -1.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 -3.6 -3.0 -2.5 -1.3 35.7 40.2 -3.3 -1.6 0.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 -10.6 -9.8 -6.6 -1.3 35.7 41.7 -10.1 -8.0 -6.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 -3.4 -2.8 -4.6 -1.5 33.4 39.5 -2.9 -1.2 0.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 -3.1 -2.5 -6.0 -1.5 34.3 40.5 -2.7 -1.2 0.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 -3.3 -2.9 -5.8 -1.5 33.8 40.6 -3.0 -1.5 -0.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 -4.5 -3.9 -6.0 -1.3 36.6 42.4 -4.2 -2.6 -1.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 -4.1 -3.4 -6.2 -1.4 35.6 42.0 -3.6 -2.0 -0.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 -2.8 -2.5 -5.0 -1.8 30.8 36.9 -2.3 -0.9 0.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 -3.4 -3.0 -4.7 -1.7 32.3 38.5 -2.9 -1.5 -0.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 -2.7 -2.2 -6.1 -1.5 34.1 41.0 -2.3 -0.9 0.4 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 -3.6 -3.3 -2.7 -1.6 33.5 38.4 -3.4 -1.7 -0.2 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 -5.6 -4.9 -6.6 -1.5 34.4 40.8 -5.0 -3.5 -2.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 -4.0 -3.4 -2.7 -1.4 34.2 39.0 -3.5 -1.8 -0.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 -9.0 -7.9 -7.5 -1.1 38.4 43.9 -8.5 -6.6 -4.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 -3.7 -3.0 -3.4 -1.5 34.0 39.6 -3.1 -1.4 0.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 -4.1 -3.9 -3.1 -1.7 31.5 36.6 -3.7 -2.1 -0.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 -3.7 -3.4 -3.0 -1.5 33.0 38.3 -3.4 -2.0 -0.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 -3.3 -2.9 -5.0 -1.6 32.2 38.6 -2.9 -1.5 -0.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 -4.1 -3.3 -4.0 -1.4 35.0 39.6 -3.5 -1.8 -0.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 -3.7 -2.8 -6.1 -1.0 39.1 43.5 -3.4 -1.8 -0.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 -4.2 -3.2 -2.9 -1.3 36.7 40.8 -3.7 -1.6 0.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 -5.0 -4.7 -5.7 -1.9 30.6 37.6 -4.5 -3.0 -1.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 -6.8 -6.0 -6.9 -1.4 35.5 41.6 -6.3 -4.4 -2.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 -3.5 -2.9 -2.5 -1.3 35.8 40.2 -3.1 -1.4 0.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------