***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.02.2018.-04.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 -0.5 -1.5 -1.9 -0.4 44.1 46.0 -2.3 -1.1 0.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 -3.7 -3.0 -2.5 -0.9 37.5 40.6 -3.4 -2.0 -0.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 0.9 -0.3 -2.0 -0.7 40.9 43.2 -0.9 0.3 1.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 -7.2 -6.1 -4.8 -0.6 41.5 43.2 -6.8 -5.4 -4.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 -1.8 -2.6 -3.8 -0.4 45.3 46.5 -3.4 -2.3 -1.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 -2.6 -2.8 -5.5 0.2 53.4 53.5 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 -1.1 -2.7 -2.4 -0.9 38.2 41.4 -3.1 -1.7 -0.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 -7.4 -7.8 -5.5 0.0 50.2 50.8 -9.0 -7.8 -6.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 -0.9 -1.5 -3.5 -0.1 48.4 49.1 -2.6 -1.4 -0.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 -1.0 -1.6 -5.0 -0.2 47.8 48.7 -2.6 -1.5 -0.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 -1.3 -1.8 -4.2 0.0 49.9 50.4 -2.9 -1.8 -0.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 -2.4 -2.6 -4.6 0.2 52.7 52.9 -3.9 -2.8 -1.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 -1.7 -1.9 -4.7 0.3 53.7 53.6 -3.3 -2.1 -1.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 -0.5 -1.9 -4.4 -0.9 37.8 40.2 -2.2 -1.0 0.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 -1.1 -1.7 -3.4 -0.2 47.6 48.1 -2.8 -1.6 -0.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 -0.8 -1.1 -4.6 0.1 51.3 51.6 -2.2 -1.1 -0.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 -1.3 -3.3 -2.8 -1.3 33.4 37.6 -3.3 -1.9 -0.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 -3.2 -3.9 -5.7 -0.4 45.0 46.5 -4.7 -3.6 -2.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 -3.6 -2.9 -2.5 -0.9 38.0 40.9 -3.3 -1.9 -0.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 -6.3 -6.9 -6.7 -0.1 49.0 50.1 -8.2 -6.8 -5.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 -3.1 -2.0 -2.5 -0.4 45.0 46.4 -2.9 -1.6 -0.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 -3.8 -3.5 -2.9 -1.3 33.4 37.2 -3.5 -2.1 -0.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 -3.5 -2.8 -2.6 -0.8 39.1 41.6 -3.2 -2.1 -1.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 -3.1 -2.4 -4.2 -0.6 41.5 43.5 -2.9 -1.8 -0.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 -1.4 -2.2 -3.0 -0.4 44.7 46.1 -3.0 -1.9 -0.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 -1.6 -1.6 -4.5 0.5 57.4 56.7 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 -1.0 -2.1 -2.4 -0.4 44.2 46.0 -3.0 -1.6 -0.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 -2.4 -3.3 -4.4 -0.5 43.7 45.1 -4.0 -2.9 -1.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 -3.8 -4.4 -6.1 -0.2 47.8 48.7 -5.5 -4.3 -3.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 -1.0 -2.4 -2.2 -0.8 39.8 42.5 -2.9 -1.5 -0.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------