***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.02.2018.-11.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 7.6 4.7 4.3 -1.7 37.0 38.1 4.1 6.6 8.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 3.0 3.6 3.4 -2.9 30.1 31.8 4.0 6.3 8.4 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 4.6 5.3 4.4 -2.3 34.2 35.5 5.1 7.4 9.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 1.8 0.4 2.1 -0.8 44.0 44.4 -1.0 1.2 3.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 8.0 6.5 4.2 -0.8 44.1 44.5 5.1 7.3 9.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 89 11 100 6.7 7.3 4.5 1.0 58.4 57.8 4.5 6.4 8.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 2.4 3.2 3.4 -2.7 30.7 32.4 3.5 5.8 8.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 86 14 100 -0.4 -1.0 3.8 -0.4 47.2 47.6 -2.1 -0.7 0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 8.7 7.0 5.1 -1.0 42.8 43.4 5.8 7.9 10.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 8.3 6.6 4.1 -1.0 42.8 43.5 5.3 7.5 9.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 8.2 7.2 5.3 -0.3 47.8 47.9 5.3 7.5 9.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 87 13 100 7.8 7.5 4.8 0.1 51.3 51.3 5.3 7.4 9.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 87 13 100 7.8 7.9 5.8 0.6 54.9 54.5 5.1 7.3 9.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 72 28 0 100 4.1 4.7 3.1 -3.6 27.1 29.2 5.6 8.0 10.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 89 11 100 6.7 6.1 4.3 -0.1 49.4 49.3 3.9 6.2 8.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 86 14 100 8.3 8.1 5.0 0.3 52.5 52.2 5.6 7.8 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 77 23 0 100 2.4 2.8 2.5 -3.5 25.1 27.4 3.9 5.9 7.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 7.5 5.7 3.4 -1.4 39.5 40.7 4.9 6.9 8.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 2.8 3.6 3.6 -2.9 30.5 32.1 4.0 6.4 8.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 88 12 100 3.8 3.1 2.6 -0.4 46.8 47.4 1.5 3.4 5.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 8.5 6.1 5.1 -1.6 38.2 39.2 5.4 7.6 9.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 77 23 0 100 2.7 3.2 2.6 -3.7 24.9 27.1 4.4 6.6 8.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 3.3 4.1 3.8 -2.8 30.7 32.5 4.4 6.8 8.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 5.3 5.9 4.2 -2.4 33.3 35.0 5.8 8.1 10.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 7.1 5.0 3.7 -1.4 39.1 40.0 4.3 6.3 8.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 88 12 100 7.3 7.9 4.9 1.1 60.0 59.5 5.2 6.9 8.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 4.3 5.1 4.0 -1.7 36.6 37.8 4.7 6.8 8.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 87 13 100 7.9 7.1 3.6 -0.2 48.7 48.6 4.8 7.3 9.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 4.2 2.8 3.2 -1.0 42.0 43.1 1.8 3.6 5.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 3.3 3.9 3.8 -2.5 32.7 34.1 3.9 6.2 8.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------