***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.02.2018.-18.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 2.7 2.5 3.9 -2.8 24.3 28.6 3.7 5.8 7.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 68 32 0 100 1.6 1.2 3.6 -3.1 22.4 26.9 2.8 4.9 7.0 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 2.2 1.9 4.0 -3.1 23.6 28.2 3.3 5.6 7.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 -4.1 -4.4 0.8 -3.0 24.1 28.7 -3.1 -1.0 1.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 2.4 2.3 2.6 -2.8 25.8 30.3 3.3 5.5 7.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 2.3 2.7 1.9 -2.0 31.7 35.3 2.9 4.9 6.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 1.3 0.9 3.7 -2.9 23.4 27.6 2.3 4.5 6.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 -5.0 -5.2 1.8 -2.7 26.5 30.9 -4.4 -2.6 -1.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 2.5 2.2 3.5 -2.8 25.6 30.2 3.4 5.7 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 2.6 2.4 2.4 -2.9 25.6 30.2 3.5 5.6 7.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 2.8 2.7 3.0 -2.7 26.6 31.2 3.6 5.8 7.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 2.5 2.4 2.6 -2.5 27.6 32.1 3.2 5.3 7.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 3.1 3.5 3.1 -2.1 30.9 34.5 3.8 5.9 7.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 2.5 1.8 3.0 -3.6 21.6 25.8 3.6 5.9 8.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 1.9 2.1 2.4 -2.6 27.1 31.8 2.9 5.1 7.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 3.1 3.4 2.7 -2.5 28.2 32.6 4.1 6.2 8.3 30 Nis 06700G01 69 31 0 100 1.4 0.9 3.4 -3.1 21.6 25.7 2.5 4.6 6.5 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 2.4 2.0 2.1 -3.0 25.3 29.8 3.1 5.2 7.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 1.5 0.9 3.7 -3.2 22.2 26.8 2.7 5.0 7.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 -0.4 -0.7 0.7 -2.5 27.4 31.2 0.0 1.9 3.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 2.3 2.1 4.0 -2.9 25.0 29.4 3.3 5.6 7.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 72 28 0 100 1.5 1.0 3.4 -3.3 20.9 25.0 2.9 5.0 7.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 1.8 1.1 3.7 -3.3 22.0 26.7 2.8 5.1 7.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 2.6 2.0 3.3 -3.2 23.6 28.2 3.4 5.7 7.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 68 32 0 100 1.6 1.6 2.6 -2.8 24.6 28.7 2.8 4.9 6.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 3.2 3.8 2.6 -1.6 34.3 37.0 3.6 5.7 7.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 2.1 1.9 3.5 -2.7 24.8 28.8 3.1 5.3 7.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 2.2 2.2 1.6 -2.8 25.5 30.3 3.3 5.6 7.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 -1.4 -1.7 1.7 -2.8 26.1 30.4 -0.7 1.5 3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 1.4 1.0 3.7 -3.0 23.2 27.7 2.5 4.8 6.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------