***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.02.2018.-25.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 4.9 5.3 5.4 -1.9 31.0 35.9 5.6 7.8 9.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 3.8 4.1 5.3 -2.0 30.6 35.4 4.5 6.8 9.0 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 4.3 4.8 5.7 -2.1 30.3 35.5 5.2 7.6 9.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 69 31 0 100 -2.8 -2.6 2.1 -2.6 25.4 31.4 -1.5 0.8 2.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 4.4 4.7 3.8 -2.2 29.2 34.8 5.3 7.7 9.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 3.8 4.7 3.0 -1.5 34.0 39.2 4.5 6.8 9.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 3.4 4.0 5.6 -1.7 32.6 37.0 4.1 6.4 8.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 -4.0 -3.5 3.5 -1.6 33.5 38.3 -3.6 -1.5 0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 5.1 5.3 4.6 -2.0 30.7 35.9 5.7 8.0 10.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 5.3 5.7 4.0 -1.8 32.6 37.4 5.8 8.1 10.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 5.2 5.6 4.1 -1.8 31.8 37.0 5.7 8.1 10.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 4.8 5.4 4.1 -1.6 33.5 38.4 5.3 7.6 9.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 5.1 6.0 3.8 -1.4 35.4 40.1 5.7 8.0 10.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 5.0 5.5 4.8 -2.1 30.8 35.4 5.8 8.2 10.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 68 32 0 100 3.6 3.6 2.6 -2.7 24.9 31.4 4.7 6.9 8.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 5.3 5.9 3.8 -1.7 32.5 37.9 6.0 8.3 10.5 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 3.5 3.7 5.3 -2.0 30.3 35.0 4.1 6.3 8.4 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 4.9 5.6 4.2 -1.5 34.8 39.3 5.3 7.6 9.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 3.6 3.9 5.4 -2.1 29.9 34.9 4.4 6.8 9.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 1.1 1.9 2.3 -1.2 36.2 40.7 1.5 3.7 5.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 4.7 5.1 5.1 -2.1 29.7 35.1 5.6 7.9 10.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 3.8 3.7 5.2 -2.2 28.5 33.9 4.4 6.8 9.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 4.0 4.4 5.7 -2.1 29.9 34.9 4.8 7.2 9.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 5.0 5.6 5.0 -1.9 32.3 36.9 5.7 8.0 10.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 3.8 3.9 3.5 -2.3 28.1 33.4 4.6 6.8 8.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 4.8 5.7 3.6 -1.3 34.7 39.2 5.4 7.7 9.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 4.3 4.7 4.9 -1.9 31.2 36.0 4.9 7.2 9.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 69 31 0 100 3.8 3.9 2.4 -2.6 25.7 32.1 5.1 7.5 9.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 4.8 1.9 3.7 -1.4 36.0 40.5 1.5 3.8 5.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 3.6 4.1 5.4 -1.9 31.2 35.9 4.3 6.6 8.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------