***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.02.2018.-04.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 12.4 11.2 8.5 1.1 61.8 61.2 7.1 9.6 11.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 11.2 10.2 8.5 1.1 61.5 61.5 6.3 8.6 10.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 12.7 11.6 9.0 1.3 62.9 61.8 7.4 9.8 12.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 0.2 4.4 5.7 0.8 58.1 56.8 0.7 3.2 5.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 12.8 11.9 7.1 1.2 62.7 60.2 7.7 10.1 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 12.1 11.5 5.9 1.5 65.7 60.9 7.2 9.5 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 10.8 9.9 8.5 1.1 61.6 61.7 6.1 8.3 10.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 2.6 2.2 6.4 1.6 66.8 62.8 -0.9 0.7 2.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 13.2 12.5 7.9 1.5 64.6 61.8 8.2 10.5 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 13.2 12.6 7.1 1.6 66.4 62.7 8.0 10.4 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 13.4 12.6 7.3 1.4 64.9 61.5 8.1 10.5 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 12.4 11.8 7.1 1.6 66.7 62.6 7.7 9.8 11.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 13.3 12.7 6.6 1.6 67.5 62.8 8.3 10.5 12.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 13.3 12.6 8.2 1.6 65.2 62.6 7.8 10.3 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 5.2 9.5 6.0 0.4 54.6 54.2 6.1 8.8 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 13.6 13.0 6.9 1.4 65.2 61.4 8.7 11.0 13.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 10.4 9.4 8.5 1.1 61.6 61.5 5.7 7.9 10.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 12.9 12.5 7.2 1.8 68.1 64.0 7.8 10.1 12.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 11.6 10.5 8.8 1.2 62.1 61.8 6.4 8.8 11.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 7.7 7.3 4.6 1.5 66.7 63.0 3.9 5.6 7.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 12.9 12.0 8.5 1.3 63.7 61.6 7.8 10.2 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 11.6 10.3 8.6 1.0 61.0 61.0 6.3 8.7 11.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 12.4 11.5 9.2 1.4 63.7 62.4 7.2 9.6 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 13.4 12.8 8.3 1.7 66.4 63.3 8.2 10.5 12.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 11.7 10.5 6.8 1.0 60.9 59.6 6.6 9.0 11.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 12.3 12.0 6.3 1.4 67.0 62.5 8.1 10.1 11.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 11.9 10.9 7.8 1.1 61.5 60.7 7.1 9.4 11.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 6.0 11.0 5.9 0.7 57.7 56.3 6.7 9.7 12.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 8.6 8.3 6.4 1.8 68.4 64.2 4.2 6.1 8.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 11.3 10.2 8.5 1.1 61.4 61.4 6.4 8.7 10.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------