***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.02.2018.-04.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 5.2 5.7 5.5 -1.3 33.0 36.3 5.7 7.4 9.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 4.1 4.4 5.2 -1.7 29.2 32.9 4.8 6.7 8.4 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 5.2 5.6 5.8 -1.5 31.4 35.2 5.8 7.6 9.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 -1.1 -0.6 2.7 -1.4 33.2 36.5 -0.6 1.0 2.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 5.5 6.2 4.4 -1.1 36.0 39.2 5.9 7.6 9.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 7.5 6.6 3.8 -0.3 46.2 47.1 5.4 6.9 8.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 3.8 4.1 5.3 -1.6 30.3 34.1 4.4 6.3 8.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 -0.6 -1.7 3.9 -0.8 39.8 42.0 -2.2 -1.1 0.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 5.9 6.7 5.3 -1.1 36.3 39.5 6.3 8.0 9.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 5.9 6.7 4.4 -1.0 37.3 40.0 6.2 7.9 9.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 8.7 6.9 4.9 -0.9 39.3 41.7 6.3 8.0 9.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 8.1 6.8 4.7 -0.6 42.2 43.9 6.0 7.5 8.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 8.5 7.5 4.8 -0.3 45.7 46.7 6.4 7.9 9.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 5.4 5.6 4.8 -1.9 27.9 31.7 6.2 8.1 9.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 4.4 5.2 3.8 -1.2 35.7 38.5 4.9 6.8 8.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 8.9 7.6 4.6 -0.6 42.1 44.0 6.7 8.3 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 3.7 3.7 4.9 -1.9 26.6 30.9 4.4 6.2 7.8 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 5.4 6.2 4.2 -1.0 36.9 39.7 5.8 7.4 9.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 4.1 4.3 5.4 -1.8 29.2 32.9 4.8 6.8 8.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 4.2 2.9 2.6 -0.6 40.5 42.5 2.3 3.6 4.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 5.6 6.1 5.7 -1.3 33.6 37.2 6.1 7.8 9.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 4.0 4.0 4.9 -2.0 25.5 29.9 4.9 6.8 8.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 4.7 4.8 5.6 -1.7 29.5 33.2 5.3 7.2 9.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 5.7 6.3 5.2 -1.4 32.4 35.9 6.4 8.1 9.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 4.6 5.1 4.2 -1.3 32.8 36.2 5.1 6.8 8.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 8.0 7.5 4.4 -0.1 48.6 49.0 6.2 7.6 8.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 5.0 5.5 5.1 -1.3 33.0 36.4 5.5 7.2 8.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 4.9 5.8 3.4 -1.2 35.6 38.6 5.5 7.5 9.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 2.0 2.8 3.7 -0.8 38.7 41.1 2.3 3.8 5.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 4.2 4.5 5.4 -1.6 30.7 34.3 4.8 6.6 8.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------