***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.02.2018.-18.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 8.7 10.4 10.5 103.1 64.0 52.6 3.5 6.6 11.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 2.7 8.8 9.6 110.0 66.7 51.7 2.4 4.9 8.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 10.2 13.6 11.4 113.4 67.6 56.0 3.3 7.1 12.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 12.9 18.4 14.9 126.4 71.7 61.1 6.3 10.5 15.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 12.8 16.8 13.3 117.1 68.6 58.6 5.8 10.0 15.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 8.7 13.5 15.0 132.6 73.4 63.2 4.1 7.1 11.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 2.3 6.7 8.8 100.4 63.0 49.7 2.0 4.2 7.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 18.5 23.7 15.1 124.5 70.9 62.7 11.8 16.5 21.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 10.2 12.8 12.3 108.2 65.6 55.9 4.1 7.7 13.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 13.1 17.9 14.2 119.7 69.4 60.6 6.3 10.7 16.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 13.9 15.0 14.9 129.5 72.5 62.5 4.1 7.5 12.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 16.7 17.8 14.4 127.3 71.8 62.4 6.2 10.2 15.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 15.4 16.5 15.7 130.5 72.8 63.1 4.4 8.1 13.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 11.3 16.2 14.8 117.2 68.8 60.3 4.7 9.0 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 13.9 17.6 16.7 150.7 77.5 65.3 3.5 7.0 12.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 12.9 13.8 14.7 128.0 72.1 62.2 4.1 7.3 11.6 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 2.3 7.5 9.0 105.3 65.1 50.5 2.0 4.3 7.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 12.1 16.1 14.5 115.1 67.7 59.9 5.6 9.8 15.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 8.5 11.3 10.4 114.9 68.3 53.9 3.2 6.3 10.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 42 58 100 16.5 17.1 19.3 123.0 70.4 64.1 5.8 9.9 15.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 10.1 12.1 11.6 106.5 65.0 54.2 3.9 7.5 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 3.0 9.4 9.9 111.2 67.1 51.9 3.1 5.6 9.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 7.9 10.6 11.6 116.8 68.9 57.1 3.5 6.2 9.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 10.8 14.2 13.4 112.8 67.1 57.9 4.5 8.4 13.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 10.4 12.6 12.3 102.6 63.8 54.5 3.4 7.4 13.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 12.3 13.0 15.4 130.6 72.8 65.0 3.1 6.1 10.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 8.2 9.4 10.8 99.4 62.5 52.4 2.6 5.8 10.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 15.2 18.4 15.9 143.1 75.7 64.8 3.7 7.6 13.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 19.5 25.3 16.0 116.5 68.2 61.3 10.8 16.8 24.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 7.7 9.7 10.0 111.1 66.9 53.1 2.9 5.6 9.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------