***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.02.2018.-25.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 6.7 7.2 10.4 95.3 61.1 51.2 2.8 5.2 8.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 5.3 6.0 9.4 101.8 63.4 51.7 2.1 3.9 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 8.8 9.8 11.0 101.8 63.2 52.3 3.4 6.5 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 8.4 10.5 14.4 114.9 68.2 55.2 4.2 6.7 10.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 3.5 9.5 13.7 107.6 65.4 53.9 3.2 6.0 9.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 12.1 11.8 14.5 121.6 69.9 58.3 3.2 6.2 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 6.0 6.7 9.1 99.9 62.9 51.5 2.3 4.4 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 14.1 15.4 13.9 101.0 62.4 54.0 6.8 11.2 16.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 3.1 8.1 13.9 104.8 64.2 53.1 3.1 5.4 8.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 3.6 8.6 14.3 102.0 62.8 53.4 3.3 6.0 9.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 3.4 8.9 13.1 106.3 64.8 54.2 3.1 5.7 9.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 8.5 10.0 12.9 105.8 64.4 55.1 3.4 6.4 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 14.1 13.0 14.2 114.5 67.6 57.1 4.3 7.8 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 9.1 10.1 14.2 102.0 62.6 52.2 3.4 6.6 11.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 2.7 12.4 15.8 135.0 74.1 57.4 2.3 5.0 9.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 7.9 9.7 13.4 110.7 66.4 55.2 3.2 5.9 9.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 6.0 6.9 9.1 102.0 63.7 50.8 2.0 4.2 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 7.9 8.6 14.5 97.8 61.1 52.8 2.9 5.8 10.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 5.2 6.0 10.0 103.7 64.0 52.5 2.0 3.8 6.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 11.3 12.6 18.5 101.0 62.3 54.3 4.9 8.8 14.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 7.5 8.6 12.5 102.7 63.6 51.7 2.8 5.5 9.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 5.9 6.5 9.7 100.2 63.1 50.8 2.3 4.3 7.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 5.3 6.1 11.1 106.0 64.5 52.9 2.2 4.0 6.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 10.2 11.0 13.3 99.7 62.0 52.5 4.6 7.9 12.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 7.6 8.7 12.9 101.7 63.3 52.4 3.0 5.7 9.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 11.3 11.3 14.7 121.6 70.0 60.0 3.5 6.3 10.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 6.2 6.6 11.0 94.4 60.5 50.8 2.7 4.8 7.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 3.1 11.7 14.6 123.4 70.6 56.3 2.6 5.5 9.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 15.1 16.2 15.6 97.4 60.7 53.2 6.6 11.8 18.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 2.3 6.5 9.7 100.4 62.9 51.9 2.0 4.1 7.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------