***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.02.2018.-04.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 8.5 8.9 11.2 93.6 60.3 49.6 3.1 6.2 10.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 4.2 10.9 10.1 98.1 62.0 48.5 4.2 7.6 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 10.0 9.3 10.4 85.5 57.2 47.3 3.6 7.2 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 10.4 9.8 12.0 85.0 57.3 48.7 3.5 7.5 13.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 10.4 9.0 11.3 78.1 53.3 45.4 4.6 8.1 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 4.0 7.0 11.6 80.9 52.5 44.5 3.8 6.5 10.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 3.9 10.7 10.4 104.5 64.5 50.4 3.7 6.9 11.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 14.3 12.0 12.8 80.0 52.7 44.4 6.1 11.0 17.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 9.1 7.5 11.5 76.2 52.0 44.4 4.0 7.1 11.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 10.2 8.4 12.5 76.8 51.5 44.2 4.7 8.1 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 7.2 6.1 11.0 78.8 52.9 45.0 3.2 5.7 8.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 9.7 8.1 11.2 80.0 52.9 44.3 4.2 7.4 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 4.3 7.7 12.2 83.8 54.0 45.1 4.1 6.8 10.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 13.2 9.9 12.0 74.6 50.9 43.1 4.9 9.7 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 11.2 12.6 12.3 91.7 61.4 51.5 3.9 8.2 14.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 8.6 7.5 11.4 81.8 54.4 45.9 3.5 6.5 10.7 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 4.6 11.3 10.4 106.2 65.3 50.5 4.3 7.4 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 9.2 7.3 12.9 74.1 49.4 42.1 4.5 7.5 11.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 4.9 10.9 10.0 92.1 59.5 47.3 4.7 8.2 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 9.4 8.0 17.5 82.1 53.2 44.4 4.1 7.3 11.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 10.2 8.9 11.1 80.8 54.8 46.2 4.0 7.6 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 10.3 11.8 10.8 102.7 63.8 49.4 5.0 8.2 12.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 8.4 7.5 9.8 81.7 55.2 45.1 3.6 6.4 10.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 10.3 8.6 11.5 75.1 51.1 42.9 5.0 8.3 12.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 9.9 9.8 12.8 90.9 59.1 49.6 3.2 6.9 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 4.1 8.7 12.4 87.6 56.5 45.8 3.7 7.0 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 3.5 9.1 12.2 96.0 61.1 50.4 3.0 6.1 10.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 8.6 8.5 11.5 84.8 57.5 48.6 3.2 6.6 11.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 13.2 10.3 14.0 75.5 49.6 41.9 6.0 10.4 16.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 3.6 10.6 10.3 96.3 61.4 48.6 3.4 7.1 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------