***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.02.2018.-04.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 42.7 44.5 49.8 121.8 71.0 66.5 20.3 29.4 40.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 41.9 45.5 45.2 127.6 74.0 68.0 21.8 30.1 39.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 55.6 57.4 50.5 123.3 71.8 67.6 26.9 38.0 51.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 58.6 63.8 62.9 128.0 74.1 68.5 31.0 42.3 55.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 45.8 53.7 54.9 113.1 66.1 61.7 30.4 41.3 53.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 46.0 50.7 59.8 127.3 75.7 69.4 25.8 34.0 43.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 38.5 41.3 43.9 125.6 72.9 66.9 20.7 28.1 36.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 77.6 73.7 59.0 111.1 64.9 60.9 50.7 62.1 74.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 41 59 100 47.3 44.9 54.7 111.8 65.2 61.4 26.3 35.3 45.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 56.2 51.8 57.9 109.4 63.6 60.0 31.9 42.1 54.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 47.5 45.5 55.0 114.7 67.2 62.6 25.0 34.1 44.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 52.0 50.3 54.6 114.6 67.3 62.6 29.0 38.6 49.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 52.5 53.4 59.5 118.5 70.2 64.5 29.5 39.3 50.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 52.7 61.6 60.5 114.4 67.1 63.1 37.7 48.9 60.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 61.2 77.7 67.9 149.2 81.2 74.8 21.6 35.2 52.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 47.2 47.4 56.4 118.9 70.1 64.7 22.5 32.4 43.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 41.5 43.9 43.5 125.5 72.7 65.9 23.8 31.2 39.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 42.9 46.1 59.3 106.1 61.2 58.0 28.9 38.7 49.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 46.0 49.8 47.0 127.2 73.9 68.4 24.6 33.4 43.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 46.5 52.2 76.2 109.7 63.7 59.5 31.3 42.1 54.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 44 56 100 51.4 51.6 53.2 116.6 68.1 63.8 26.8 37.4 49.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 43.3 45.5 46.6 126.4 73.4 66.7 24.6 32.2 40.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 41.1 43.3 50.1 123.8 72.3 67.7 21.9 29.9 39.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 47.7 54.2 55.9 111.8 65.1 61.6 33.9 43.8 54.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 44 56 100 53.9 54.8 57.0 117.7 68.8 64.2 25.5 37.5 51.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 27 73 100 47.3 49.1 60.9 125.6 74.3 68.2 25.2 33.6 42.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 42 58 100 46.8 48.1 52.1 119.8 69.9 65.4 22.9 32.8 44.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 54.1 63.0 63.0 136.4 77.2 71.1 22.0 33.9 48.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 69.0 73.7 63.9 106.5 61.5 57.9 49.9 63.5 78.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 45.3 49.1 46.8 127.8 74.0 68.7 21.0 30.6 41.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------